The small underground nuclear explosion in North Korea early in October and the ongoing concern regarding Iran's uranium enrichment have highlighted both the success and the vulnerabilities of non-proliferation measures in place since 1970.
The success is that no uranium traded for civil use has ever been diverted to military purposes. But the potential to challenge the non-proliferation regime has always been inherent in the circumstances. No country is without ample uranium (say ten tonnes) for a modest weapons programme. And if, like North Korea, it is already cut off from most world trade, there is little leverage that can be brought to bear in dissuading it from nuclear adventurism.
The situation of Iran is different. It has two quite discrete nuclear programmes: one is the Russian construction of a nuclear power plant at Bushehr, which will replace enough oil and gas for electricity generation to pay for itself in a very few years. The fuel for Bushehr will be supplied from Russia and the used fuel will be promptly returned there.
The other Iranian programme is a project to develop uranium enrichment capability. This was undertaken in secret for almost 20 years, in violation of Iran's safeguards agreement with IAEA. Iran's assertions of peaceful intent have met near-universal scepticism internationally.
The North Korean and Iranian challenges have generated widespread discussion of what could now be done to strengthen the non-proliferation regime. The global resurgence underway in the use of civil nuclear power gives this question added weight.
In the 1960s, before the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) came into effect, it was widely considered that there would be over thirty nuclear weapons states by the turn of the century. In fact, by 2000 there were eight - the five "weapons states" under the NPT plus Israel, India and Pakistan. Several other countries had embarked upon weapons programmes, but for various reasons they had not persisted. Now North Korea joins the eight, and in the future Iran may do so.
It is worth looking at how these countries have approached the challenge of making nuclear weapons, given that 60 years after Alamagordo, Hiroshima and Nagasaki the basic technology is now widely known.
India, Israel and North Korea used large "research reactors" to breed plutonium from the non-fissile U-238 isotope which comprised most of the fuel, North Korea's is a Russian 25 MW model at Yongbyon. Running these reactors so that after a month or two the fuel was removed and reprocessed to recover the plutonium, they laboriously built up a stock of weapons-grade plutonium. They were then faced with the challenge of making a fairly sophisticated bomb from this.
Pakistan, Iraq (to 1991) and South Africa all acquired or developed uranium enrichment capability and used this to enrich uranium not simply to the 3-5% U-235 for power reactors but to weapons grade (90% U-235) or near weapons grade. Iran appears to be heading in the same direction. This high-enriched uranium could then be used in a simple weapon - so simple that in 1945 the Manhattan Project scientists saw no need to test it before using it (the more complex plutonium bomb was tested at Alamagordo in New Mexico).
Part of the purpose of safeguards inspections under the NPT is to ensure that no country operating under those safeguards is either running its reactors with frequent fuel changes or enriching uranium to levels useable for weapons. There is clear self-interest in most cases for this innocence to be transparently established, so that neighbours are not feeling threatened militarily and so that civil nuclear power and research activities can be pursued without ambiguity. The IAEA role is essentially whistle blower rather than policeman. If enforcement is required, that can only be by international diplomatic action.
North Korea removed itself from the IAEA inspection regime, and proceeded without obstacles to develop weapons capability (though the first test evidently failed, being much less powerful than expected). Iran has also curtailed the inconvenience of safeguards inspections, while proclaiming innocence of intent.
When the NPT was inaugurated, its aim to track all traded uranium under safeguards provisions (accounting and auditing), and to maintain inspections of declared facilities was considered very ambitious. To have insisted on greater powers at that time would perhaps have aborted the exercise; and the exercise of such powers would have lacked the sensitive detection technologies now available.
After the first Gulf War and the detection of Iraq's secret nuclear programme, there was widespread recognition that previous provisions were inadequate to prevent nuclear proliferation in undeclared facilities and using small amounts of indigenous uranium. Hence, after several years of study and negotiation, in 1997 an Additional Protocol was agreed upon, to be added to each country's safeguards agreement with IAEA.
The Additional Protocol is much more intrusive than traditional safeguards, giving IAEA inspectors greater rights of access. This includes any suspect location. Inspections can be at short notice (eg 24 hours, two hours at a nuclear site), and the IAEA can deploy environmental sampling and other techniques to detect illicit activities. In addition, states must streamline administrative procedures so that IAEA inspectors get automatic visa renewal and can communicate more readily with IAEA headquarters.
Where states have a safeguards agreement with the IAEA and an Additional Protocol in force, the IAEA is able to say each year not only that declared nuclear material remains in peaceful activities, but also that there are no indications of undeclared nuclear materials or activities.
Unfortunately, take-up has been disappointing among the NPT's 185 parties. So far only 77 have ratified the Additional Protocols and a further 38 have signed but not yet ratified. Of the 71 countries with significant nuclear activities, seven NPT parties have not yet signed Additional Protocols and another ten have not yet ratified them (another four of the 71 are outside the NPT).
The search for other means - beyond the Additional Protocol - to strengthen the non-proliferation regime has led to proposals for such mechanisms as an international nuclear fuel bank, or at least arrangements by which the IAEA could guarantee fuel supply. The paradox of these proposals, however, is that they are not wanted or needed by the vast majority of countries with peaceful intent and they are unlikely to change the behaviour of countries with weapons aspirations.
Even if all international trade in uranium - amounting to many tens of thousands of tonnes per year - were to cease tomorrow, it would have no effect (or at least no helpful effect) on rogue states developing nuclear weapons. The amount of uranium required for a few weapons is small, and easily supplied indigenously.
Two important conclusions can be drawn: (1) There is little relation between the dangers of proliferation and the global renaissance in the peaceful use of nuclear power; and (2) while the safeguards system needs continual improvement in line with evolving expectations of it, where proliferation threats arise the international community must deal with them as specific cases, and cannot simply rely on generic or "systemic" fixes.
Major US power uprates
In July the Nuclear Regulatory Commission approved major uprates at two US nuclear power plants: 16.8% for Constellation's RE Ginna plant in New York state (from 470 MWe net) and 8% for FirstEnergy's two Beaver Valley units in Pennsylvania (from 821 MWe). The Beaver Valley uprates have now been partly implemented, with unit 2 increasing power to 864 MWe net after modifications and unit 1 to 868 MWe - the remaining 2-3% for each (53 MWe net) will be achieved 2007-08. The RE Ginna uprate involved a new high pressure turbine and other secondary circuit refurbishment (steam generators were replaced in 1996) and brought the 37 year-old unit to 580 MWe net. The total net increase in capacity now is some 200 MWe.
NRC, FirstEnergy 30/8, 29/9, 13 & 16/11/06, RE Ginna 14/11/06.
Utilities compensated for used fuel delay
The US Federal Court has awarded $143 million in damages to three related New England utilities on account of the Department of Energy's failure to remove their used fuel from closed down reactor sites, as was required by 1998. As a result they had to build dry storage facilities. Two years ago Exelon reached agreement with the Department of Justice to recover an unspecified sum, but likely to be up to $600 million by 2015, for delays in removing used fuel from its 17 nuclear reactors following the appointed 1998 date.
Platts 4/10/06, Nucleonics Week 12/8/04.
47th US reactor licence extension
The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission has extended the licence of Constellation's two Nine Mile Point reactors by 20 years, to 2029 and 2046, and of Xcel Energy's Monticello plant, operated by Nuclear Management Co, to 2030.
Platts 25/10/06, NRC 8/11/06.
Silex development with GE approved
Silex Systems and General Electric Energy have received US government approval for development in the USA of the SILEX uranium enrichment process using laser technology. This approval clears the way for construction of a test loop (full-scale demonstration) leading to commercial production beginning with the lead cascade to operate two to three years later, and eventual full commercial production under the licence agreement signed in May. GE will fund these and has already paid US$ 20 million as the first of a series of payments. It will then pay a royalty on revenues from commercial production.
GE said that "commercialisation of the SILEX enrichment technology is a crucial part of GE's long-term growth strategy for the nuclear business."
Silex 4/10/06, GE 4/10/06.
Progress with university reactor conversions
After a hiatus of six years the US government has finished converting two university research reactors from using high- to low-enriched uranium fuel. Both Texas A&M and University of Florida reactors can now operate on fuel of less than 20% enrichment, and four more US university reactors will be converted in the next three years. Worldwide, 40 (out of some 260) remain to be converted under the US-led Reduced Enrichment for Research and Test Reactors (RERTR) scheme using currently-available fuels, and 19 more await development of high-density fuel. This will remove from the scene fuels which have potential for weapons or terrorist use.
NuclearFuel 6/11/06.
British MPs swing to nuclear
Over the last year there has been a substantial increase in support for building replacement nuclear capacity in UK among ruling Labour members of parliament. Opposition has declined accordingly. Overall 61% of MPs support new nuclear build and 22% oppose, while 66% say nuclear should be a major contributor to UK's energy future and 81% think it will be. Of Labour MPs, 60% support new nuclear build (up from 35% last year) and 80% of Conservative MPs do so.
The reasons for MP support are energy security (37%), realisation that renewables won't fill the gap (18%), reduce dependence on fossil fuels (15%), a good safety record (15%) and the need for balanced energy policy (12%) with very little difference between the parties except on the last, where Conservatives were stronger. Implementing effective policies on nuclear wastes before proceeding with new build was seen as necessary by 78% of MPs, but only 28% believed that there is already "a clear way forward" on this. Regarding MPs' trusted sources of information on nuclear energy, academics rated 83%, nuclear industry leaders 51%, environmentalists 44% and media 24%.
In November the UK Prime Minister told parliament that "in common with countries around the world, we need to put nuclear back on the agenda and at least replace the nuclear energy we will lose [from closing old power plants]. Without it we will not be able to meet any of our objectives on climate change, or our objectives on energy security." Nuclear provides 20% of Britain's power, 75 billion kWh in 2005.
Ipsos MORI 26/9/06, Times 16/11/06.
Russian plant selected for Bulgaria
Bulgaria's National Electricity Company, NEK, has chosen Atomstroyexport (ASE) over a Skoda-led consortium to build the Belene nuclear power plant comprising two 1000-MWe AES-92 VVER units with third-generation reactors. Russia's ASE leads a consortium including Areva NP and Bulgarian enterprises in the EUR 4.0 billion project on the Danube River. The new units will be similar to those being built by ASE in China and India and the first is expected on line in 2013. Instrumentation and control will be supplied by Areva NP. Projected power cost is EUR 3.7 c/kWh.
Skoda Alliance proposed an upgraded V-320 model reactor based on the Temelin units in the Czech Republic, for EUR 5 billion. One such unit was already partly built at the site when work stopped due to lack of funds in 1991, and the ASE bid involves buying back the equipment supplied then for use in Russia. NEK said that the AES-92 with a third-generation reactor satisfied stringent western European safety standards and so would be more acceptable in the EU, which Bulgaria joins in January. NEK will carry 51% of the project and will seek partners such as Enel, CEZ or Gazprom from Italy, Czech Republic and Russia respectively.
Nucleonics Week 2/11/06, NuclearRu 1/11/06.
Russia confirms funding for nuclear expansion
Russia has formally adopted a US$ 54 billion nuclear energy development program, with $25 billion of this to 2015 coming from the federal budget. The balance is from industry (Rosatom) funds and no private investment is involved. The Minister of Finance strongly supported the program to increase nuclear share from 15.6% to 18.6% of total, hence improving energy security as well as promoting exports of nuclear power technology. After 2015 all funding will be from Rosatom revenues.
Apart from completing two VVER-1000 units - Rostov/Volgodonsk-2 and Kalinin-4 and the BN-800 fast reactor at Beloyarsk, there will be three standard VVER reactors built at Leningrad (two units as stage 2) and Novovoronezh (unit 6) and a program of building at least 2000 MWe per year in Russia from 2009 (apart from exports). Thus by 2015 ten new reactors totalling at least 9.8 GWe should be operating. This appears to be above the low growth scenario outlined in September, which added a further 2400 MWe per year to 2020, giving 37,000 MWe nuclear (19.3% of total) by then.
NucNet news #226/06, NuclearRu 17/10/06.
Dutch outline nuclear future
The Dutch government has set conditions for new nuclear plants, confirming the abandonment of its earlier phase-out policy. On behalf of the economics minister, the formerly anti-nuclear minister for environment said nuclear power could reduce carbon emissions. Any new reactor must be a Generation-III model with levels of safety being equal to those of Areva's EPR, at a coastal site. Before its operation, and no later than 2016, the government must decide on a disposal strategy for existing high-level waste. Used fuel should be stored until 2025, when a choice would be made between direct disposal, reprocessing, or partitioning and transmutation. Plants should be dismantled promptly after closure, and decommissioning funds clearly earmarked. Uranium should be sourced from certified, environmentally responsible mining operations, with in-situ leaching (ISL) preferred due to their low environmental impact. The conditions must be voted on by the country's new parliament, elected on 22 November.
Platts 29/8/06, EPZ 29/9/06.
Belgium to review energy policy
A draft energy policy study commissioned by the Energy Ministry says that a fundamental review of energy policy is required and in particular that nuclear power should be utilised long-term in order to meet CO2 reduction commitments, enhance energy security and maintain economic stability. At present, Belgium's seven nuclear power reactors are likely to close by 2025.
Foratom 21/11/06.
Plans for EU nuclear power reactors
A second unit at Slovenia's Krsko nuclear power plant is planned for operation in 2017. A 1000 MWe PWR is expected to cost EUR 2 billion.
A feasibility study undertaken on behalf of the three Baltic states, showed that a new plant of 800 to 1600 MWe and costing EUR 2.5 to 4.0 billion at the Ignalina site in Lithuania would be economically attractive and could be on line in 2015. E.On and Iberdrola have expressed interest in investing in this. Projected electricity cost is about EUR 4.3 c/kWh, the least of 12 options considered, though the capital cost component of this is the greatest of all but wind.
Energy in E.Europe 27/10/06.
Finland opinion leans to 6th reactor
A Suomen Gallup poll shows that 91% of Finns believe that their country should not increase its electricity imports from Russia, and 59% support construction of a sixth nuclear reactor (the fifth is under construction). Half of the Left Alliance voters support more nuclear power as do a higher proportion of others.
Helsigen Sanomat 19/10/06.
UK plans break-up of BNFL
The UK government has approved plans for disposal of British Nuclear Group - the major part of BNFL. It is open to bids for all but BNFL's Nexia Solutions, which will be the basis of a new national nuclear laboratory. The prime part of the disposal will be the contract with the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority to run and clean up Sellafield, the site of all UK's back end of fuel cycle activities. This will be awarded in 2008. BNG's Reactor Sites business will be sold as a whole, but separately from the rest. Earlier, US-based Fluor offered up to £400 million for the whole BNG enterprise.
BNFL & BNG 24/10/06, Telegraph 25/10/06.
Fine for Sellafield leak
British Nuclear Group has been fined £0.5 million plus costs for the feed pipe leak of 83 cubic metres of radioactive solution into a hot cell at the Thorp reprocessing plant, discovered in April 2005. The Chief Inspector of Nuclear Installations acknowledged that while there had been no harm to workers or the public, it nevertheless represented a major operational lapse which would not be tolerated. The plant is expected to reopen in a few months after completion of modifications and regulatory approval of them.
Nucleonics Week 19/10/06.
British Energy closes reactors for boiler repair
BE has closed four reactors on account of boiler degradation in the non-nuclear part of the plants. Hinkley Point B-1 had more extensive boiler tube cracking than previously experienced, indicating that early inspections of the same components were required at Hunterston B-2 and Hinkley Point B-2. The problem originally became evident at Hunterston B-1 in August and required £10 million and some months to fix. Two units are likely to be restarted at the end of December and two at the end of January, then all four will operate at 70% capacity until about March 2008. BE may need to buy back some power it has sold forward over winter months. The four very similar Advanced Gas-cooled Reactor units of about 600 MWe are 28-30 years old, and unique to UK.
Nucleonics Week 19/10/06, BE 17/11/06.
Russia to build two more Chinese reactors
A preliminary agreement has been signed for Russia's Atomstroyexport to build units 3 & 4 of Tianwan nuclear power plant once the first two units have been successfully commissioned. The first is now at 40% power and the second is due for grid connection in a few months. The agreement also covered building phase 4 of the Shaanxi centrifuge enrichment plant.
NuclearRu 3/10/06.
Japan produces first mixed oxide
The new Rokkasho reprocessing plant being commissioned by Japan Nuclear Fuel Ltd has yielded its first mixed oxide from treatment of used fuel. The plant uses a modified PUREX process to give a main product of 50:50 mixed uranium and plutonium oxides, which removes any ambiguity regarding possible uses of the plutonium. This will then become the main ingredient of MOX fuel.
JAIF 2/11/06.
Mitsui and Tenex to develop Russian mine
Japan's Mitsui & Co with Russia's Technsabexport are undertaking a feasibility study for a uranium mine in eastern Russia to supply Japan. First production from the Yuzhnaya mine in Sakha (Yakutia) Republic is envisaged for 2009. Resources in the Elkon uranium province are quoted as more than 250,000 tonnes U. Mitsui has an option to take 25% of the project, and is funding $6 million of the feasibility study. Construction of the Yuzhnaya mine is likely to cost US$ 245 million, with production reaching 1000 tU/yr by 2015. This would represent the first foreign ownership of a Russian uranium mine.
Ux Weekly 9/10/06, TradeTech NMR 6/10/06, Atoms in Japan 5/10/06.
Kazakh uranium for US power
Canadian-based UrAsia has announced contracts totalling 2600 t U3O8 to supply US utilities from its Akdala uranium mine in the Stepnoye mining group, in the Chu-Sarysu basin, Kazakhstan. In 2005 the company paid US$ 350 million for 70% of the South Inkai project including Akdala, which produces 1180 t/yr U3O8. South Inkai mine is due to start production late in 2007. Urasia also paid US$ 75 million for 30% of the Kharassan mine in the Western mining group, in the Syrdarya basin, which is also expected to begin production late in 2007. The Kharassan-1 mine is expected to ramp up production to 3500 t/yr by 2010.
UrAsia 9 & 14/11/06.
Japan secures Uzbek uranium
As the Japanese Prime Minister visited the country, the Uzbek economic and trade ministry signed a memorandum of understanding with Japan Bank for International Cooperation to finance uranium development in Uzbekistan, which has 2% of the world's known uranium resources. A similar agreement was signed with Kazatomprom of Kazakhstan. Subsequently it was announced that uranium exports to Japan through Itochu Corporation would commence in 2007.
Atoms in Japan 29/8/06, Ux Weekly 6/11/06.
Dominion mine approved in South Africa
SXR Uranium One has obtained its mining right for the Dominion project in South Africa. With construction now 80% complete Dominion is expected to start production in 2007 and increase to 1730 t/yr by 2011. Production cost is expected to be US$ 14.50/lb U3O8 The first sales contract for 680 tonnes was announced in November. The new order mining right incorporates black empowerment targets for employment.
SXR UraniumOne 11/10 & 17/11/06.
US-India civil nuclear agreement progresses
The bill on nuclear cooperation between India and the USA was passed in the US Senate by a majority of 85 to 12 in November, following passage of the House of Representatives version by 359 to 68 in July. Differences between the two versions need to be resolved by Congress in December. India, which remains outside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, welcomed the broad bipartisan support for the bill, but said it would not accept any watering down of what was agreed by the heads of state in July. The US President welcomed the prospect of India coming into the non-proliferation mainstream. Other issues remaining to be tackled include the safeguards agreements between India and the IAEA and gaining the support of the 47-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group.
Meanwhile India and China are pursuing nuclear energy cooperation, though China has supplied some uranium and heavy water in the past. Times 18/11/06, Nucleonics Week 23/11/06, Asia Times 23/11/06.
Cigar Lake mine flood setback
A flood in the underground Cigar Lake mine which is under development has set the project back at least a year. This is Cameco's second major high grade deposit, with reserves of 176,700 t U3O8at over 24% grade. It is 450 m deep and in poor ground conditions, designed to use freezing to keep out groundwater and high-pressure water jets for excavation of ore. Production was to have started early in 2008, reaching 8200 t/yr by 2011. An earlier flood in one shaft had set back the project six months. It has always been recognised that mining Cigar Lake would be extremely difficult and the new water inflow was major. Equity is 50% Cameco, 37% Areva, 8% Idemitsu and 5% Tepco.
The spot price of uranium jumped 7% in the week following news of the Cigar Lake mine flood, in the light of the production setback. Ux Consulting said that the flood was likely to have severe repercussions because of the potential disruption to supply and timing of it over 2008-10. Shares in potential alternative suppliers rose strongly. Cameco has commenced remedial work, aiming to plug and grout the area concerned.
Cameco 23/10 & 20/11/06, Ux Weekly 30/10/06.
Ontario application for further site permit
Following Bruce Power's application in August, Ontario Power Generation has applied for a licence to prepare its Darlington site for construction of new nuclear power units. The Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission will review the application and decide what level of environmental assessment is required. Darlington currently has four large CANDU units which started up 1990-93.
Platts 22/9/06.
Ministerial report outlines uranium future
The report of a widely-representative steering group set up by the Australian Resources Minister has identified salient issues relating to the future of uranium mining in Australia. The Uranium Industry Framework (UIF) is focused on both opportunities and impediments in the context of Australia having about one third of the world's known resources. The first recommendation is that the industry "establish a uranium stewardship platform as the basis for its engagement with the global uranium stewardship programs currently being developed by the World Nuclear Association." A further 19 address competitiveness, regulation and land access. Steering group members were drawn from state, territory and federal governments, industry, public service and an aboriginal land council. The Australian Uranium Association looks forward to playing a significant role in implementing the UIF action plan over 2007-08.
UIF 13/11/06.
Nuclear energy review reports
The draft report of the Prime Minister's expert taskforce considering nuclear power and related matters for Australia has presented a number of findings, including support for increased uranium mining and export. However, although conversion and enrichment of that uranium would add significantly to its export value and impediments to that should be removed, the commercial prospect is not attractive.
Regarding nuclear power, this would be 20-50% more expensive than coal-fired power and (with renewables) it would only be competitive if "low to moderate" costs of about A$ 15-40 (US$ 12-30) per tonne CO2 are imposed on emissions. "Nuclear power is the least-cost low-emission technology that can provide base-load power" and has low life cycle impacts environmentally. The first nuclear plants could be running in 15 years, and looking beyond that, 25 reactors at coastal sites might be supplying one third of Australia's (doubled) electricity demand by 2050. Certainly "the challenge to contain and reduce greenhouse gas emissions would be considerably eased by investment in nuclear plants." "Emission reductions from nuclear power could reach 8 to 18% of national emissions in 2050". Waste issues are manageable and weapons proliferation would not be exacerbated. "Nuclear power today is a mature, safe and clean means of generating base-load electricity."
UMPNER draft report 21/11/06.
ERA encouraged by Ranger drilling
Energy Resources of Australia has encountered some encouraging uranium intersections in seeking to extend its Ranger 3 orebody and hopes to have some resource figures from this by end of the year. Meanwhile reserves have been increased by 11,100 tonnes, which will extend mill production to 2020. Production for the quarter recovered to 1103 t U3O8 (935 tU) though ore grade was down to 0.2%.
BHP Billiton reported quarter production of 793.9 tonnes U3O8 (673 tU) from Olympic Dam, and at end of June its known resources were increased to 1.6 million tonnes U3O8.
ERA 18 & 25/10/06, BHPB 24/10/06.
Honeymoon licensed environmentally
South Australia's Environment Protection Authority has issued the licence required under the Radiation Protection and Control Act (1982) for commercial uranium mining operations at SXR Uranium One's Honeymoon project. It already has an approved Environmental Impact Statement, mining lease and uranium export licence for a 400 t/yr in situ leach (ISL) mine.
SXR Uranium One 29/9/06.
New research reactor at full power
ANSTO's new OPAL research reactor at Lucas Heights near Sydney has reached full power during commissioning. The 20 MW reactor was built by INVAP from Argentina and is running well. ANSTO claims it will be one of the two or three best research reactor and neutron scattering facilities in the world, being robustly constructed and capable of both neutron beam and isotope production tasks.
ANSTO 3/11/06.
Major OECD report highlights nuclear role
The World Energy Outlook 2006 from the OECD's International Energy Agency (IEA) highlights the increasing importance of nuclear power in meeting energy needs while achieving security of supply and minimising carbon dioxide emissions. If policies remain unchanged, world energy demand to 2030 is forecast to increase by 53% accompanied by supply crises, giving a "dirty, insecure and expensive" energy future which is unsustainable. Over 70% of the increased energy demand is from developing countries, led by China and India - China will overtake the USA as top CO2 emitter by 2010.
The report demonstrates that nuclear power could make a major contribution to reducing dependence on imported gas and curbing CO2 emissions in a cost-effective way, since its uranium fuel is abundant. However governments must play a stronger role in facilitating private investment, especially in liberalized electricity markets where the trade-off between security and low price has been a disincentive to investment in new plant and grid infrastructure. Investment of US$ 20.2 trillion is required by 2030 under the IEA alternative energy scenario, increasing nuclear capacity by 41% to 519 GWe and reducing energy demand by 10% and CO2 emissions by 16% compared with projections on present basis. Of this amount, $11.3 trillion is for electricity: $5.2 trillion for generation and the rest for transmission and distribution.
IEA 7/11/06.
Toshiba retains most of Westinghouse
Since agreeing to buy the nuclear reactor vendor and nuclear fuel services company Westinghouse from BNFL in February for US$ 5.4 billion, Toshiba has been in discussion with potential equity partners. It has now announced that Shaw Group Inc and Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries Co Ltd as strategic investment partners will respectively take 20% and 3% of the company, but Marubeni Corp. has dropped out. This leaves Toshiba with 77% (US$ 4,158 million) rather than an intended lower share, but it is continuing discussions with other potential partners. All relevant government approvals have now been obtained, and the acquisition will close in October, using new Toshiba holding companies in USA and UK.
Westinghouse 5/10/06.
Hitachi and General Electric strengthen ties
GE Energy and Hitachi Power Systems are to merge their nuclear operations. A global alliance through cross-shareholdings in the nuclear divisions (excluding nuclear fuel) will strengthen the long association between the two in building boiling water reactors (BWRs). The arrangement will result in a Japanese joint venture which is 80% owned by Hitachi and a worldwide joint venture 60% owned by GE, and involving laser enrichment technology. Toshiba, which now owns Westinghouse and hence has a new focus on pressurized water reactor technology, will remain part of two Generation-III BWR design projects. As announced in June, NRG Energy plans to build two GE-Hitachi 1358 MWe ABWRs at its South Texas site. GE's ESBWR design is a lead contender for at least four of the other 16 Construction & Operating Licence (COL) proposals for new US plants, totalling up to 30 units.
GE 13/11/06, Atoms in Japan 13/11/06, Nucleonics Week 16/11/06.
Mitsubishi forges Areva link
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) has negotiated a strategic alliance with Europe's Areva NP, and a memorandum of understanding was signed in Tokyo. MHI has been prominent in design and construction of Japanese pressurised water reactors, originally under licence from Westinghouse, and supplies major parts for US and European plants. Recently it has supplied the reactor pressure vessel for the new EPR unit at Olkiluoto in Finland, being built by Areva. It also is preparing to market a 1700 MWe version of its Advanced PWR in the USA, though Areva's US EPR of 1600 MWe is ahead of it in the licensing queue there. An initial goal of the collaboration is developing a new Generation-III 1000 MWe reactor for the USA and east Asia.
The new alliance will mean that Areva-MHI competes against Toshiba-Westinghouse and GE-Hitachi in east Asia and beyond and is positioned for development of Generation-IV fast reactors and high-temperature reactors.
Areva 19/10/06, Nucleonics Week 19/10/06, Platts 19/10/06.
Nuclear fusion project launched
Countries representing half the world's population - China, India, Japan, Russia, South Korea, the USA and the European Union - have signed a US$ 12.8-billion implementing agreement for the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) to be built at Cadarache in France, the EU bearing half the cost. The French President praised the attempt to "tame solar fire to meet the challenge of ecological energy."
ITER 21/11/06, Globe & Mail 21/11/06.
Climate change negotiations
Talks in Nairobi made some progress towards a possible new agreement in 2010 to limit greenhouse gas emissions in the period after 2012 when the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period ends. The next year or two will be spent agreeing an agenda and the new agreement will be negotiated in the following two years. The US Presidential elections at the end of 2008 influence timing, since without US participation countries such as China and India will be unwilling to consider any commitment to emission limitations. The meeting failed to resolve whether Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) projects should be accepted in the Clean Development Mechanism - a policy instrument giving carbon credits to projects that reduce emissions in developing countries. A restriction on the use of credits from nuclear projects is already part of the Protocol.
Carbon emission stocktake
The first complete set of data for the 41 industrialised parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) was released at the Nairobi meeting and shows that greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise despite measures under the Kyoto Protocol. Figures for 1990 to 2004 show that apart from the temporary effect of restructuring in eastern Europe, emissions from industrialised countries rose 11% over the period. For all those countries emissions were down by 3% and for the 36 parties to the Protocol, emissions declined by 15%. Emissions from the USA were 16% up, those from Australia 25% up, and energy-related CO2 emissions for China rose 110% and for India 89% over the period - those from China exceeding Europe's. Most developed countries are targeting an 8% reduction to 2008-12.
UNFCCC 27/10/06.
UK report urges action on carbon emissions
An economic report by Sir Nicholas Stern, commissioned by the UK government, has highlighted the urgent need to curb carbon dioxide emissions globally and the positive prospects of doing so. The present Kyoto Protocol to 2012 is inadequate and needs to be replaced by an arrangement which takes in all countries, including India and China, to cut back on emissions globally through market-based mechanisms. Already these are leading to replacement of high-emitting technologies and economic measures can do so even further without penalizing developing countries. The report says that the power sector worldwide needs to be 60% decarbonised by 2050, and deep emission cuts are also needed in transport.
"Climate change is the greatest market failure the world has ever seen, and it interacts with other market imperfections. Three elements of policy are required for an effective global response:
1. Pricing of carbon, implemented through tax, trading or regulation.
2. Policy to support innovation and deployment of low-carbon technologies.
3. Action to remove barriers to energy efficiency."
The report suggests that economic costs are likely to be about 1% of global production, very much less than doing nothing more than under present Kyoto constraints which are restricted to consumption-based economies.
Reactor table
Economics of nuclear power
Advanced nuclear reactors
Small nuclear power reactors
Safety of nuclear power reactors
Plutonium
Safeguards to prevent proliferation
Safeguards appendix (N.Korea)
Processing used nuclear fuel
Mixed Oxide fuel
Thorium
Uranium enrichment
The nuclear debate
International waste repositories
Energy subsidies and external costs
Policy responses to global warming
Emerging nuclear energy countries
Nuclear power in UK
Nuclear power in USA
Nuclear power in Belgium
Nuclear power in Bulgaria
Canada's uranium & nuclear power
Nuclear power in China
Nuclear power in Russia
Nuclear power in India
Nuclear power in Pakistan
Nuclear power in Japan
Nuclear power in Kazakhstan
Nuclear power in Korea
Australia's electricity
Nuclear desalination
Cosmic origins of uranium
Radioisotopes in medicine
Australian uranium mines (mines paper)
See also Ux Consulting graphs
World reactor changes in last two months
USA: Ginna & Beaver Valley uprates 200 MWe total
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