The book presents a comprehensive, thorough and wide-ranging review of nuclear energy at the start of the century with its manifest opportunities outlined in relation to the negative perceptions which threaten to constrain them. It probes the arguments for both pro and anti-nuclear stances and exposes inadequacies in each.
The first specific chapter is a long one on Public Perceptions and Decision-making. It ranges over all the factors in public perception, though without much reference to those who are attempting to shape them according to ideology rather than need. But it concludes: "There is little evidence that populations at large in most developed countries are commitedly anti-nuclear. Despite the heated and acrimonious nature of the debate among those who devote their time to such things, most observers and stakeholders seem to take a more balanced view of the issues. It does seem, however, that politicians in a number of countries mistake the heat of the debate for major public disquiet, .... and overestimate public opposition by a large margin."
On economics, there is recognition of the need to structure electricity markets to cater for intermittent output from wind generation, bankable long-term contracts for base-load financing, and the financing of back-end liabilities. At the same time governments need to protect system reliability, security of supply and affordable power prices and as with other industries and natural phenomena, accept liability in the event of serious accident as insurer of last resort. In relation to security of supply the point is made that the cost of a lost unit to the consumer is many times greater than the cost of a routinely-delivered unit. External costs are covered adequately, and the chapter concludes that "in the absence of great concern about the security of energy supplies or climate change, .... the economics of nuclear power would have to improve beyond those of the currently deployed technology, which is based largely on designs from the 1960s and 1970s". In relation to new reactor designs, demonstration plants need to be built, perhaps with government help, "so that a proper appraisal can be made of nuclear power's economic potential".
The wastes-reprocessing-proliferation chapter (one quarter of the main part of the book) is unduly academic in the sense of putting forward every point of view with little reference to the performance record of what is actually being done. For instance, transport of wastes frequently appears among the problems, without reference to the amount and safety of radioactive materials transport today. The discussion of deep geological disposal reads strangely to anyone acquainted with mining. Also in this chapter unsubstantiated views sometimes get as much prominence as well-supported ones. The safety chapter is well done, though on Chernobyl and radiation, the UNSCEAR reports since 1988 are ignored.
The issues of research, development and commercialisation are sensibly covered, though there is practically nothing on the potential for hydrogen production. Throughout, factual glitches are few and minor. They are minor irritants in what is a very worthwhile treatment of the subject, one which will be credible and useful to governments and policy makers.
Finally, recommendations are made for the industry and for governments and the opinion ventured that "perhaps the most difficult issue concerning nuclear power is the construction of demonstration plants". Two key questions are put forward which face us all:
Double or Quits? The global future of civil nuclear energy, 2002, by Malcolm Grimston & Peter Beck, RIIA & Earthscan Publications, London, & Brookings Inst, USA. ISBN 1 85383 913 2 (paper).
US government considers financing options for new nuclear plants.
The US Department of Energy is considering a commissioned report which presents options for government financing support for new-generation nuclear reactors. The support would be applied to the first few units of a new design in order to compensate for development costs or construction delays, in order to keep the cost down to US$ 1200/kW, rather than one third higher for the first of a kind.
Nucleonics Week 3/10/02.
Congress passes terrorism insurance.
Legislation that will provide a federal financial backstop for insurers in the event of future terrorism attacks has been approved by both Senate and House. For the nuclear industry, it will extend the cover now provided by Nuclear Electric Insurance Ltd in relation to any property or casualty claims.
NEI Infowire 20/11/02.
A second proposal is to "produce a clear, transparent response in reasonable time" on dealing with radioactive wastes, giving "priority to geological burial ... as the safest method of disposal known at present." States would have to decide on repository sites for high-level wastes by 2008 and have them operational by 2018. EU pressure for states to commit to disposal programs and timetables would be welcomed, in principle. A further proposal covers common rules for financing plant decommissioning.
NucNet news # 349/02, Foratom 6/11/02.
EU Commissioners push nuclear.
The EU commissioner in charge of the internal market and taxation has stressed that nuclear power remains a vital contributor to meeting Europe's energy needs and serves two important policy objectives. It provides the technical capacity to increase diversification, needed to reduce external dependence on oil and gas. It also is the only way to meet Kyoto commitments for CO2 emission reduction. It should therefore have higher political priority, rather than being victim to "unjustified emotions" in debate. Earlier, the EU research commissioner had said that nuclear power was a key part of the future energy supply in the context of sustainable development.
NucNet news # 291 & 351/02.
UK public wants electricity without greenhouse
The UK government has released the results of a wide-ranging public consultation on energy policy, which show that tackling pollution and global warming are seen as higher priorities than minimising costs. Renewables were popular. Views on nuclear energy were varied, with concern expressed about managing wastes. Energy supply was generally taken for granted.
BNFL welcomed the results of the consultation, pointing out that "nuclear power is the only credible solution to the challenge of achieving real and lasting reductions in CO2 emissions while also maintaining a reliable supply of electricity. We (in UK) face a future in which dependence on imported gas will lead to a less secure supply. The results of the consultation show that we still have some way to go to convince the public on the benefits of nuclear power, but it's a challenge that we're ready to take on."
Earlier, the Institution of Chemical Engineers released a report which called for a "greater degree of realism" about renewable energy's potential contribution in UK, and said that a "more realistic and manageable" target would be 10% of electricity supply by 2020, not 20%. Currently it contributes 3%. "A replacement program for nuclear power, which maintains generating capacity at existing levels, is essential," because nuclear is CO2-free. Due to current anomalies in the UK electricity market, CO2 emissions have increased over the last two years, despite the government objective of reducing them. Government intervention was needed to remedy the market deficiency, it said, since low wholesale prices mean that only "the oldest, fully-depreciated, most inefficient and dirty coal-fired stations ... can be operated with any margin of profit."
The Royal Society has warned the government that carbon dioxide emissions are rising and that the existing climate change levy is ineffective and should be replaced by a comprehensive carbon tax or system of CO2 permits. Such a tax might initially add about one pence per kWh to electricity or 6p per litre to petrol. It would make new nuclear power developments competitive and hasten the deployment of fuel cells. The report says that the choice for UK is either to embark upon building new nuclear power reactors or to find some other non-emitting replacement capacity.
..... as UK electricity market "bust".
Meanwhile several UK generators have joined British Energy in calling for the government to remedy the problems which have led to the near demise of several, including BE. Powergen is to shut more than a quarter of its UK capacity, calling the electricity market "bust" and saying that BE's situation "is a problem for the whole industry" and the market "is simply not sustainable". "The government has to set a clear direction for energy policy and a market framework that establishes an appropriate balance between the fuels," and it should also immediately close down BNFL's six Magnox nuclear power stations. The US owners of three of the UK's largest coal-fired plants have also spoken out. However, those utilities which are vertically integrated and supply more electricity than they generate are doing well out of the current situation.
BE has no retail involvement, and having originally borrowed £410 million from the UK government for two weeks, the loan was then extended to £650 million and by two months as the government worked out what it must do to keep not only BE but also other generators solvent. The UK Electricity Association said that "the present commercial problems facing BE raise serious issues that affect ... the whole UK electricity industry." "The current position (of low wholesale prices) is not sustainable .... (an) objective of energy policy must be to provide a stable environment and prices that encourage long-term investment." In November TXU Europe was placed into administration, with repercussions across the UK power sector.
Nucleonics Week 3/10/02, NucNet business news # 72/02, news # 322 & 358/02, BNFL10/10/02, Times Online 10/10/02, FT 21/11/02.
German compromise on reactor shut-down.
Under the 2000 phase-out accord with the "red-green" coalition government, Germany's oldest nuclear reactor was due to close in 2003. Its owners, EnBW, had sought a five-year extension, but the government agreed to only two years for the 340 MWe Obrigheim unit, so that it will close during the present government's term, thereby giving the greens a political victory. E.On-Energie earlier announced that it will close the 640 MWe Stade reactor next year for economic reasons. The country's other 17 nuclear power reactors are set to operate well beyond the new government's term of office. One third of Germany's electricity is nuclear.
Meanwhile, utility RWE has warned that the government's adversarial approach to nuclear power is compromising the safety culture developed over the last three decades. "We see many problems in everyday work that do not originate in real technical problems but in the attempt by the political side to have successes in the public (arena) and the media" and to score points. RWE has a monitoring program to ensure that improved performance leads to profit and safety, rather than allowing cost cutting to compromise safety.
NucNet news # 328/02, Nucleonics Week 17/10/02.
France heads for centrifuge enrichment.
Though France is host to the largest modern diffusion enrichment plant in the world - the 10.8 million SWU Georges Besse plant at Tricastin, Cogema has signed a memorandum of understanding with Urenco as the basis of meeting its future uranium needs beyond 2010. The 50-50 joint venture requires the assent of governments involved and will build on Urenco's well-proven technology. It covers design and construction of uranium centrifuge equipment and facilities, as well as R&D. New plant will replace the Georges Besse plant run by Cogema subsidiary Eurodif, marking almost the end of the era of energy-intensive uranium enrichment. Georges Besse started up in 1979.
NucNet business news # 77/02, NuclearFuel 28/10/02.
Belgium backtracks on nuclear phase-out.
The Belgian government has announced that despite plans to phase out nuclear power between 2015 and 2020 as reactors reach the end of their operating lives, it will "keep open the nuclear option because hydrocarbons are getting more expensive and because nuclear energy production causes no greenhouse gas emissions". Well over half Belgian electricity is from nuclear power (58% in 2001).
Ux Weekly 21/10/02.
Bulgaria defies EU on reactor closures.
The Bulgarian parliament has decided almost unanimously that units 3 & 4 of Kozloduy nuclear power station will not be closed down until after Bulgaria has gained EU membership, despite the EU's insistence that they close in 2006, prior to the country's admission. Following a decade of safety upgrades on the units, an IAEA mission reported very favourably in July. The Bulgarian energy minister then said that an EU peer review of these two units is necessary before any further consideration of closure. This has since been agreed by the EC. "Should this review reveal that reactors 3 & 4 have not reached the necessary level of nuclear safety for reactors of the same vintage in the member states ... we shall close them unconditionally."
Bulgaria is preparing to decommission Kozloduy units 1 & 2 at the end of this year, as agreed with the EU in 1999. All four reactors are first-generation Russian PWRs - VVER-440/230 models, each delivering 405 MWe - units 1 & 2 started up in 1974-75 and units 3 & 4 in 1981-82. Kozloduy units 5 & 6, later VVER-1000/320 types which started up in 1988 & '91, are being upgraded at present. Bulgaria gets 42% of its electricity from nuclear power.
NucNet news # 244, 311, 315 & 360/02.
Large Danish wind project nears completion.
Denmark's 160 MWe Horns Rev wind farm, 14-20 km off the west coast, is ready to go into full production after a rapid construction phase. The 80 turbines, each 2 MWe, cover 20 sq km. This and the 158 MWe Nysted offshore wind farm project (72 x 2.2 MWe) are the survivors of cutbacks from five such wind farms by the new Danish government earlier in the year. Power from both will be sold at 0.453 DKK/kWh (6.1 c EUR) for the first 44,000 full-load hours (at least ten years), slightly above the usual wind tariff of 0.43 DKK/kWh (5.8 c) for new plant. After this, market prices apply. Green certificates will be available for the full life of the plant and are expected to trade at 0.10 - 0.27 DKK/kWh (1.3 - 3.6 c).
Modern Power Systems Oct 2002, Danish Wind Energy Assn 5/3/02.
UK government funds two big offshore wind farms.
The UK government is providing £10 million to each of two new offshore wind farms. The 90 MWe one off North Wales will have 30 turbines and be operated by National Windpower, part of UK utility Innogy, owned by Germany's RWE. The 80 MWe farm off Norfolk will have 39 turbines and be operated by Powergen, a subsidiary of German utility E.ON. The government aid is part of a £300 million program to boost renewable energy.
Planet Ark 4/10/02.
EC sets up hydrogen study.
The European Commission has taken a step towards the hydrogen economy by setting up a High-Level Group to assess the prospects for using hydrogen and fuel cells as a key element in transport and overall energy policy. The EC Energy & Transport Commissioner said that production and distribution of hydrogen on a commercial scale posed enormous technical and infrastructural challenges and would require massive inputs from sustainable energy sources, notably nuclear power. Initially, electrolysis of water was the likely means, using electricity from a number of sources. The group's initial report is due mid 2003.
Already there is the European Integrated Hydrogen Project (EIHP), which is aimed at creating a basis for the harmonisation of necessary legislation in the EU and developing concepts for safety, infrastructure and standardised vehicle components.
NucNet news # 323/02, V.Kiss paper at WNA Symposium 2002, www.eihp.org
Further nuclear power station for southern China.
The Guangdong Nuclear Power Group - operator of the Daya Bay and Ling Ao nuclear power plants - has applied to construct a new plant at Yangjiang in Guangdong province. The feasibility study is for a plant with at least four reactors, in line with China's tenth Five-year Plan (2001-05) which includes up to six 1000 MWe reactors for Yangjiang.
Ux Weekly 11/11/02, FreshFuel 11/11/02.
Japan to boost tax on carbon emissions.
The Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has announced that from October 2003 it will reduce its power-source development tax including that applying to nuclear generation by 15.7%, amounting to JPY 50 billion. At the same time it will introduce taxes on coal for power generation and raise those on natural gas (LNG) and LPG on the basis of their carbon emissions, to give a total net tax increase of some JPY 10 billion. Oil will remain heavily taxed, largely to support energy security measures. METI intends this adjustment within its special energy account to improve the supply mix and reduce carbon dioxide emissions. At the same time the Ministry of the Environment proposes introducing a carbon tax from about 2005.
Nikkei 17/10/02, NucNet business news # 86/02.
India starts construction of two more reactors.
First concrete has been poured for Rajasthan units 5 & 6 at Rawatbhata, each of 202 MWe net. They are due to be commissioned in 2007 and will cost some US$ 633 million. Eight power reactors are now under construction in India.
Power in Asia 17/10/02.
Japanese reactor shut down as penance.
Tepco has shut down its Fukishima Daiichi-1 reactor, a BWR which started up in 1970, after revelations about manipulating annual tests there in 1991 and 1992. The Nuclear & Industrial Safety Agency (NISA) has suspended the plant's licence for up to one year, while further extensive tests are run. "Tepco sincerely regrets and apologises that such dishonest acts were conducted" and will investigate further and report. The shut-down is the most severe penalty ever imposed by NISA on a commercial nuclear reactor.
In November Tepco submitted to NISA an interim report on "comprehensive checks on the appropriateness of inspections", following its maintenance scandal. The report covers all Tepco's nuclear facilities. No new problems have shown up. The final report is due in March.
Tepco now has nine of its 17 reactors temporarily shut down under NISA scrutiny and which cannot be restarted until uncertainties are cleared up. Four more will be shut down for scheduled maintenance early in 2003. Chubu Electric Power also has four reactors shut down, two of them under NISA scrutiny due to inspection irregularities.
NucNet news # 340 & 362/02, business news # 83/02, Ux Weekly 28/10/02, Nucleonics Week 14/11/02.
Japan's plutonium stocks increase.
At the end of 2001 Japan had 38 tonnes of separated reactor-grade plutonium stored and awaiting use in mixed-oxide fuel for its present reactors, or for future fast-neutron reactors. Some 5.7 tonnes was in Japan, and the rest in Europe, mostly France.
Atoms in Japan, Oct 2002.
Nuclear Waste Management Organisation (NWMO) set up.
As the new Nuclear Fuel Waste Act is about to come into force, Canada's NWMO has been set up and its head appointed. NWMO members are OPG, Hydro Quebec and New Brunswick Power - Canada's three nuclear power plant operators. The NWMO is required to complete a study of possible approaches to the long-term management of spent fuel within three years. It will be headed by a former head of the UN Environment Program. Under the Act the three nuclear plant operators plus AECL are required also to set up trust funds to finance long-term management and probable disposal of their spent fuel via NWMO.
NucNet news # 343/02, WMO 24/10/02, NRCan 25/10/02.
Canadian uranium production steady.
Despite diminishing production from older mines, Canadian output for the six months to 30 June was only slightly below half of full 2001 production. McArthur River produced 4448 tonnes U3O8 (3771 tU), McClean Lake 1557 t U3O8 (1320 tU), Cluff Lake 989 t U3O8 (838 tU), Key Lake 62 t U3O8 (52 tU) - total 7056 t U3O8 (5981 tU). Rabbit Lake is in the process of recommencing production, with some 600 t U3O8 expected for 2002, while Cluff Lake mill is winding down and will shut down in December.
Cameco 1/8 & 31/10/02 & CRI 3/11/02.
A pre-feasibility study on Olympic Dam Expansion with options up to tripling its capacity will begin in the next couple of months. The South Australian Government is establishing a task force to facilitate any expansion.
WMC 14/10/02, ERA 18/10/02.
Australian wind developments.
In Victoria, the 180 MWe Portland wind farm project has received government approval. It will have 120 turbines at four sites and is projected to produce 678 million kWh per year - which would give a 42% capacity factor, with the first units on line in 2003. It will be the largest wind farm in the southern hemisphere. In Tasmania, the first stage of the 130 MWe Woolnorth wind project has been opened, with six 1.75 MWe turbines.
Power in Asia Oct 2002, Pacific Hydro 18/10/02 & web site.
Most of the six systems employ a closed fuel cycle to maximise the resource base and minimise high-level wastes to be sent to a repository. Four of the six can be fast reactors, one is described as epithermal, and only one operates only with slow neutrons like today's plants. Only one is cooled by light water, two are helium-cooled and the others: lead-bismuth, sodium or fluoride salt. The latter three operate at low pressure, with significant safety advantage. The last has the uranium fuel dissolved in the circulating coolant. Temperatures range from 510°C to 1000°C, compared with less than 330°C for today's reactors, and four of them can be used for thermochemical hydrogen production.
The sizes range from 150 to 1500 MWe (or equivalent thermal), with the lead-cooled one optionally available as a 50-150 MWe "battery" with long core life (15-20 years without refuelling) as replaceable cassette or entire reactor module. This is designed for distributed generation or desalination. At least four of the systems have significant operating experience already in most respects of their design, which may mean that they can be in commercial operation well before 2030. While Russia was not a part of GIF, one design corresponds with the BREST reactor being developed there, and of course Russia is now the main operator of the sodium-cooled fast reactor for electricity - another of the technologies put forward by GIF.
DOE 19/9/02.
UN overrides funding block for UNSCEAR.
The UN General Assembly has told the UN Environment Program to review and strengthen the present funding of UNSCEAR, following its unilateral cutbacks since the early 1990s. For 2004-05 UNSCEAR has requested US$ 963,000, and this is to be taken as the reference level for the future - 43% more than at present. In the debate, all the speakers criticised UNEP for not recognising UNSCEAR's valuable role over 47 years in developing the understanding of the effects and risks of ionising radiation. The General Assembly will also review the 21-country membership of UNSCEAR, since Ukraine and Belarus are keen to join.
Nucleonics Week 24/10/02.
Silex makes major step in enrichment.
"Conclusive" test results, "demonstrating macroscopic scale uranium enrichment with the SILEX process" have been announced. "For the first time, small samples of enriched product were collected, extracted from the test facility and then fully analysed," amounting to "a complete demonstration of process viability." SILEX, now the only laser enrichment program in the world, is the only one to get this far.
Earlier, Silex Systems announced an amendment of its agreement with USEC, which has been fully funding the uranium program, so that USEC will benefit from non-uranium enrichment R&D and so that there is scope for a third partner in funding more capital-intensive further developments. Silex's stable isotope program, focused on silicon enrichment for microchips, is proceeding well.
Silex 11, 18 & 21/10/02.
Forecast rises in energy demand and CO2 emissions.
The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its two-yearly World Energy Outlook, has quantified its expectations of increases to 2030 - energy demand by two thirds and carbon emissions by 70%. The developing countries' share of global carbon emissions will jump from 34% to 47%, with China accounting for a quarter of the increase. With current energy policies, emissions from Kyoto Protocol signatories will rise to 29% above their agreed targets.
Assuming few new reactors are built, nuclear share declines overall. While the contribution of non-hydro renewables is forecast to grow 3.3% per year, they will meet very little of the global energy demand by 2030. World electricity demand is forecast to grow 2.4% per year and will double by 2030. Transport energy demand, mostly for oil, is forecast to grow 2.1% per year.
NucNet news # 304/02.
Nuclear found best for desalination.
An international conference on providing water from desalination has confirmed that nuclear energy is the best (and only non-greenhouse) option for producing fresh water on a large scale from salt or polluted water. The cost of producing potable water from a 150 MWe cogeneration nuclear desalination plant could be 50 cents/m3 for the water, with 2 c/kWh for the electricity. The first of a new series of plants could be built in the Middle East and China by 2005. The major technologies in use today (with fossil fuels) are the multi-stage flash distillation process using steam, and reverse osmosis driven by electric pumps. The Conference organisers included the IAEA and World Water Council.
Nucleonics Week 31/10/02.
Advanced reactors
Small nuclear power reactors
Safety of nuclear power
Energy analysis of power systems
Energy subsidies and external costs
Uranium markets
US nuclear power industry
Nuclear power in Japan (new)
International waste disposal concepts
Safeguards to prevent nuclear proliferation - North Korea appendix
India & Pakistan
India and China (new)
Nuclear power in China
Nuclear power in Russia
Generation IV nuclear reactors (new)
The cosmic origins & geological role of uranium (new)
NORM
The hydrogen economy
See also Ux Consulting graphs
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