The charter for the review notes that current patterns and future projections of global and UK energy use raise potential conflicts with the need to curb greenhouse gas emissions. Of even more concern in the UK is the need to ensure the security of energy supply over the long term, "security" presupposing a reasonable measure of British control over that supply. Another dimension of this flagged by the scoping note is ensuring appropriate investment incentives to maintain sufficient spare capacity to cope with supply shocks, especially relevant to high-capital generation plant. Finally the review will consider potentially conflicting policy goals for energy prices, especially the use of higher energy prices to advance environmental goals.
The nub of the energy security problem is that the UK's present fleet of nuclear power stations, which last year provided 25% of the electricity, will mostly be decommissioned by about 2015, and coal-fired generation (28% of the electricity in 2000) is "likely to have only a limited role", according to the scoping note. At the same time UK oil and gas reserves are becoming depleted and the country will by 2010 become a substantial importer of both. Promotion of renewables and energy conservation "will be insufficient to reduce dependence on imported oil and gas."
Britain's "dash for gas" in the 1990s, now slowed to a "drift to gas", has left it vulnerable both to prices and longer-term, strategically. Gas provided 38% of the electricity in 2000, but prices have doubled in the last 18 months. The scoping note refers to "UK energy security [being] increasingly tied up with that of Europe as a whole," which seems to mean beholden to sources to the east of Europe, with whom continental utilities have secured long-term contracts, leaving Britain rather out on a limb.
In the context of a country with already some of the highest petrol prices in the world, the scoping note says that "environmental policy objectives point strongly to internalising the environmental costs of fossil fuel consumption through higher energy prices", thereby encouraging conservation of fossil fuels. However, concern about fuel poverty and industrial competitiveness limit the scope for this. Also, present experience is not encouraging, in that a so-called climate change levy is currently in force on energy use in general, rather than that which contributes to CO2 emissions; "rather like taxing tonic water to control consumption of gin" according to the head of the British Nuclear Industry Forum.
Britain imports about 4% of its electricity from the nuclear abundance of France, though Electricite de France is seeking to have its UK exports classified as hydro-sourced in order to be eligible for exemption from the 0.43 pence/kWh UK climate change levy. If this is granted the utility may go on to seek a subsidy, amounting to 3 p/kWh, under the Renewable Obligation Certificate scheme, on the basis that much of its 14% hydro input is sourced from small plants (<10 MW). This 3 p/kWh level of subsidy for renewables is actually more than British Energy's total nuclear generation cost per kWh, including waste disposal. However, despite this, renewable sources remain a very minor part of UK electricity supply, including hydro they are less than 2% of total, with a goal of 10% by 2010.
The Department of Trade and Industry referred to its "strategy of security, diversity and sustainability" as framing the review. The report is expected by the end of the year and is certain to scrutinise the scope for nuclear energy in the UK over the next few decades and thereby encourage discussion of it without the constraints which have applied for the last 15 years or so.
NucNet business news # 55/01, Nucleonics Week 21/6/01, FT 26, 27 & 30/6, 19/7/01, Project Scoping Note 25/6/01.
A number of new US licence renewal applications have been lodged. Dominion Resources has applied for the renewal of operating licences for its North Anna and Surry power plants in Virginia. Renewal would take the lives of the four PWR reactors involved, totalling 3400 MWe, to 2032-2040. North Anna has been operating at about 95% load factor, and Surry about 90%.
Duke Power then applied for the renewal of operating licences for its Catawba and McGuire power plants in South and North Carolina. Renewal would take the lives of the four PWR reactors involved, totalling 4860 MWe, to 2041-2046. Exelon Nuclear has applied to renew the operating licences for Peach Bottom-2 & 3, which would take the 1055 MWe BWR units to 2033-4.
NucNet business news # 56/01, news # 182/01, Nucleonics Week 14/6/01, WNA NB 01.27.
Radiation standard set for US repository.
Following two years of debate about who should set standards and how they should be derived, the US EPA has released its radiation protection standard for the proposed high-level waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. It sets 0.15 millisievert per year as an "all pathways" exposure limit and a separate groundwater limit of 0.04 mSv/yr, the relevance of which is questioned. Both figures are being challenged in court on the basis that the Nuclear Regulatory Commission proposal for a 0.25 mSv/yr overall standard would be sufficient and the groundwater standard in particular would add considerable cost but no benefits. Natural background there is around 3.6 mSv/yr. The Department of Energy will now advise the Administration regarding approval of the proposed repository, and the NRC will use the standard in licensing it.
Meanwhile the US National Academy of Sciences has released a report by an international team from the joint Academies' National Research Council stating that "after four decades of study, the geological repository option remains the only scientifically credible, long-term solution for safely isolating waste without having to rely on active management." It envisaged some internationally-shared facilities and repositories eventually.
US-France agreement on advanced reactor research.
The USA and France have signed an agreement for joint funding of research on advanced nuclear reactors and fuel cycle development. The US Energy Secretary said that "this agreement demonstrates the strong commitment of France and the US to dedicate our expertise and resources to the joint development of nuclear systems that are safe, economical and proliferation-resistant. It is our hope that this research will accelerate deployment of Generation IV nuclear energy systems by 2030 or earlier." The agreement forms part of the International Nuclear Energy Research Initiative funded by Congress.
NucNet news # 218/01.
Congress approves US energy budget.
The US Department of Energy budget for 2002 has been approved by the House of Representatives but was modified on its way to the Senate. It included US$ 443 million for the nuclear waste management program (up 14% on this year), including $355 million for site characterisation at Yucca Mountain in Nevada. This "will focus on continuing a transition from predominantly investigative science at Yucca Mountain, to engineering and design." The total is sourced $133 million from the Nuclear Waste Fund (ie past levies of 0.1c/kWh on electricity consumers) and $310 million from the defence nuclear waste disposal account. However, under its new Nevada Democrat Chairman, the US Senate Energy & Water Subcommittee slashed this from $443 million to $275 million ($25 million from the Nuclear Waste Fund and $250 million from the defence account) before the Senate itself approved the budget. This cut was qualified by a "Sense of the Senate" amendment passed with the Bill which resolves that the levels of funding should be restored to its previous level.
Other nuclear programs received $264 million, a increase on this year and a marked increase on the House Bill. They include the Nuclear Energy Research Initiative which supports the development of innovative reactor and fuel technologies, the Nuclear Energy Plant Optimisation program (where the costs are shared with industry), and the Nuclear Energy Technologies program (the last, developing new-generation reactors, almost doubled from this year).
NucNet news # 135 & 211/01, NEI Nuclear Energy Overview 16 & 23/7/01.
US nuclear production costs fall.
New figures for 56 US nuclear power reactors show a fall in generating cost for 2000. One unit, North Anna, just missed the industry goal of 1 cent/kWh, and costs for the 56 units ranged from 3.0 cents down to 1.09 cents, with 41 units under 2 cents/kWh and 15 units over it. Capacity factors ranged from 74% to 101%. The figures cover fuel and operation & maintenance, but not any capital.
Nucleonics Week 5/7/01.
US nuclear industry envisages strong future.
The US Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) has published its Vision 2020 which includes the addition of 50,000 MWe of new nuclear capacity to the US grid in that time frame, a 50% increment on what is now operating. "The convergence of four important elements - growing energy demand, energy supply shortfalls, the continued environmental imperative and the need for continued growth - demand that we set out upon a new and more dynamic vision of the future", according to CEO Joe Colvin. The NEI also expects another 10,000 MWe of enhanced capability through power uprates and improved operations.
In July the NEI told a House Energy Committee sub committee that some minor changes of policy are desirable to support decisions to build new nuclear plants in the USA. "Given the significant public policy benefits of nuclear energy, limited policy initiatives are appropriate to support companies' investments in new nuclear plants sooner and in larger numbers" than would otherwise occur. The needed federal policy initiatives include tax law changes to reduce investment risks and allow quicker recovery of capital, and continuation of the government-industry partnership to validate the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's new power plant licensing process and to expedite new designs.
The industry has two lines of approach to new plant deployment. One is based on the three advanced reactor designs already certified by the NRC, the other on new modular gas-cooled reactors such as the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR). The NEI says that "Companies planning to start construction of new nuclear plants within the next five years are doing so because new nuclear capacity represents a solid business opportunity".
The NEI has told the NRC that it should expect three or four applications for early site permits in the next two years as well as the first combined licence application for a new nuclear power plant. While this will probably be for one of the three types already given design certification for the USA or a development of one of them, the utility Exelon says it plans to build the South African designed PBMR if a demonstration unit proves the plant's safety and economics. Exelon is a partner in the development venture, and representatives of the NRC have made numerous visits to South Africa to monitor progress and prepare for US certification of the design.
NucNet news # 206/01, Nucleonics Week 24/5/01, FT 24/5/01, NEI Nuclear Energy Overview 29/5 & 23/7/01, cf Advanced Reactors paper.
US power interruptions costed.
The cost of direct economic losses to the US economy from power interruptions and inadequate energy supplies are exceeding US$ 100 billion per year, according to a report from the Electric Power Research Institute. "The California power crisis is only the most visible part of a larger and growing energy problem ... resulting from more than a decade of inadequate investment in power generation, transmission, distribution and customer demand-response programs" according to EPRI. The fundamental technology issues and the economic risks of chronic under-investment in electricity infrastructure have not been addressed.
NEI Nuclear Energy Overview 16/7/01, www.epri.com/WesternStatesPowerCrisisSynthesis.pdf.
The agreement is a pragmatic compromise which limits political interference while providing a basis for formulation of a national energy policy. An industry leader reminded his government that "Reliable and cost-effective energy supply must remain an important component of German economic policy". Some speculation has centred on the future of the agreement, and the revised Atomic Energy Act which will follow it, under any new government.
NucNet news # 191/01.
German government threatens Czech power plant.
In a heavy-handed diplomatic manoeuvre, a German environment ministry document calling into question the technical standards of the new Temelin nuclear power plant and suggesting the possibility of its closure was formally delivered to the Czech government. The plant director said the document contained gross technical errors; "The Temelin plant complies with high safety standards. The vast majority of experts agree on this. Everything else is politics." The Czech Prime Minister said his government would not respond to the German Minister's incursion. Temelin is a modern Russian plant with western control systems and "the most comprehensive safety improvement program ever applied" to such a reactor, according to the West European Nuclear Regulators' Association.
NucNet news # 228 & 229/01, cf www.world-nuclear.org/sgspeeches/londonjuly2001.htm.
Finland and Sweden agreement on spent fuel disposal.
Posiva and SKB, the companies responsible for the management of nuclear waste in Finland and Sweden respectively, have signed cooperation and information exchange agreements on research and technology for spent nuclear fuel. The countries have adopted a similar approach to deep geological disposal in igneous rock, using iron and copper encapsulation, and separate programs are well on their way to implementation. While their cooperation has been strong since the 1980s, the new agreements widen the scope of collaboration.
NucNet news # 217/01.
Swiss approve central storage for high-level wastes.
The Swiss nuclear regulator has cleared the Zwilag central interim storage facility for full operation. The dry storage, above ground facility will take both spent nuclear fuel and high-level wastes from reprocessing. The first shipment from a nearby nuclear plant is expected in July, and each shipment will need separate licensing. Conditioning and incineration of other radioactive wastes are already licensed at Zwilag's site, which is at WŸrenlingen in the northeast of the country.
NucNet business news # 54/01.
Russian President signs spent fuel import law.
President Putin has signed into effect three laws including one to allow the import of spent nuclear fuel. The bills were passed by the Duma (parliament) early in June. The Council (upper house) was not required to deal with them but the President sought their advice on one which was uncontentious, dealing with the clean-up of contaminated areas, and this was passed 92-17.
The third reading consideration of three laws relating to nuclear developments affecting spent fuel resulted in all being passed. The Duma voted 243 to 125 in favour of amending the environment protection law to allow the import of spent nuclear fuel. Amendments to the Atomic Energy law to define 'temporary technological storage' and make all spent fuel works subject to civil contracts was passed 250 to 125. The new law on special ecological programs for contaminated areas was passed 266 to 110.
The President has also set up a special commission to approve and oversee any spent fuel imports. There will be 20 members, five each from the Duma, the Council, the government and presidential nominees. It will be chaired by Dr Zhores Alferov, who is a parliamentarian, Vice-President of the Russian Academy of Sciences and a Nobel Prize physicist.
It is not expected that spent fuel shipments will occur in the near future as substantial investment is first needed within Russia to improve safety, and any spent fuel of US origin must be approved by the US government. Hence no applications are expected to occupy the commission for some time. Until the mid 1990s Russia imported spent fuel from Finland, and some also comes from Eastern Europe under Soviet-era contracts.
NucNet news # 186 & 219/01, Planet Ark 2/7/01, TradeTech NMR 13/7/01, cf Digest 24/4/01
French and Swedish opinion firms on nuclear power.
A French opinion poll (N = 1015) shows that 68% of the citizens have a 'good opinion' of nuclear power and 63% want France to remain a leader in the industry. A very large majority, 88%, said global warming should be a major factor in energy policy and 67% affirmed the importance on nuclear energy for France's energy independence.
A new Swedish poll (N=1000) shows that 79% support continued operation of the country's 11 nuclear power reactors and only 18% support the government plan to close a further one. Last year 30% of women supported the government plan, but now only 23% do so. Curbing emissions which threaten climate change was the most important environmental goal for 71% of people.
NucNet news # 181 & 212/01.
WMC, Olympic Dam: 1276 t uranium oxide concentrate (1270 t U3O8, 1077 tU) for June quarter, 4814 t U3O8 ( 4082 tU) for the year.
ERA, Ranger: 973 t U3O8 (825 tU) for June quarter, 4612 t (3911 tU) for the year.
Total: 9426 t U3O8 (7993 tU) from these two mines for 2000-01 (15% up on '99-00).
Beverley is running well and licensed to produce 1180 t/yr U3O8 (1000 t/yr U).
Exports for 2000-01 totalled 9723 tonnes U3O8, worth A$ 497 million.
WMC 3/7/01, ERA 19/7/01, DISR.
Australian greenhouse gas emissions grow.
The Australian government's 1999 Greenhouse Gas Inventory released in April shows that electricity generation contributes a growing share of greenhouse gas emissions in the country, which has the distinction of relying on coal for 86% of its electricity. With 186 billion kWh generated, the electricity share of total greenhouse gas emissions reached 37.5% in 1999. The level of emission was 0.922 kg/kWh as carbon dioxide, slightly below the year before because of increased hydro and gas usage, but representing more than 1 kg/kWh CO2 for fossil fuel sources.
EcoGeneration April-May 2001.
A second GE design is just setting out on what is expected to be a 15-year path to NRC design certification as a Generation IV reactor concept. It develops an older PRISM intrinsically-safe, liquid metal cooled design in twin-reactor modules of 380 MWe each to give plant capacity of 2280 MWe. It would utilise spent conventional reactor fuel rather than fresh uranium. GE claims that the deployment of one S-PRISM plant per year for 30 years would eliminate the entire US spent fuel inventory from present plants as well as reducing "environmental and diversion risks".
General Atomics, which is working with Minatom and others to develop its Gas Turbine Modular Helium Reactor (GTMHR) in Russia to burn military plutonium there, is now also looking at the US market for such high-temperature gas-cooled plants, running on low-enriched uranium. Start up of a Russian prototype at Tomsk is anticipated in 2009, with a 4-module plant built by 2015. GA anticipates that the first US unit might start in 2010 and is seeking utility advice. Modules are 285 MWe (600 MW thermal) and use ceramic-coated fuel particles set in graphite (not the billiard-ball sized 'pebbles' of its South African PBMR competitor). Both this and the PBMR build on 40 years experience of high-temperature gas reactors.
Nucleonics Week 7/6/01.
Pangea science group reports.
The latest Annual Report of Pangea's Scientific Review Group, comprising nine distinguished and independent scientists reviewing plans for disposal of high-level wastes, comments that "we have been fascinated by the science, intrigued at the potential to solve the scientific challenges and concerned by the complexity of the more problematical social issues. After a year of operation the SRG believes it has a significant role to play in ensuring that any science undertaken by or for Pangea Resources International is of the highest quality." Pangea is pursuing its plans for an international repository for high-level nuclear wastes, primarily for countries with small nuclear power programs, and the SRG is currently reviewing a number of technical reports on siting, indefinite storage versus geological disposal, and transport. It recommends that these routinely be made public (two already are).
Pangea SRG annual report 1999-2000, March 2001.
Climate change negotiations reach agreement.
The adjourned COP6 climate change conference reached a level of agreement among Environment Ministers from 178 nations which could pave the way for implementation of the Kyoto Protocol next year. The USA was not involved in the negotiations and has reiterated its unpopular view that the Protocol is unsound. The text in relation to the two 'flexible mechanisms' for helping (particularly) developing countries reduce emissions affirms their responsibility and right to choose what is appropriate to their own development priorities, but says that developed countries are to "refrain from using emission credits generated by nuclear facilities to meet [their] commitments." This is despite the fact that many of them depend greatly on nuclear energy themselves to have any hope of meeting their own reduction targets.
The concessions made to achieve agreement in Bonn, especially those relating to carbon sinks, effectively reduce the stringency of the 1997 targets, much more so than in the compromise rejected by hardline EU negotiators in The Hague last November. The agreed text now needs to be formally adopted at COP7 in Marrakech this November.
In response to a threat to the prospect of this exclusion, 99 senior executives from various industry sectors signed an open letter to governments at COP6 to acknowledge the importance of nuclear energy in cutting carbon dioxide emissions. They remind governments that nuclear energy is "a necessary and uniquely effective part of the solution" to global warming, as demonstrated in 31 countries already.
NucNet news # 224 & 236/01, GCSI report 23/7/01, www.world-nuclear.org/policy/sigdoc.pdf
IAEA reports slow progress in strengthening safeguards.
The International Atomic Energy Agency has reported that last year, in the 140 states plus Taiwan that have safeguards agreements in force, all nuclear material and other items placed under safeguards was accounted for. However, North Korea remained non-compliant and Iraq partly so. Almost 2500 inspections were performed at 584 facilities, out of 902 under safeguards.
During 2000 the Agency made progress in strengthening the safeguards system, developing measures to assure the absence of undeclared nuclear materials and facilities (rather than simply ensuring that safeguarded materials are not diverted). However, the application of strengthened safeguards depends on states concluding Additional Protocols - in this regard only eleven states had Additional Protocols approved in 2000, making a total of 57 and leaving many still outside the strengthened safeguards system which has been under development since the early 1990s.
The Agency has also made progress in the development of "integrated safeguards", the cost-effective rationalisation of classical and strengthened safeguards measures. Australia, which was the first state to conclude an Additional Protocol (in 1997) and is working closely with the Agency in the development of strengthened and integrated safeguards, became the first state in which integrated safeguards are applied, commencing this year.
IAEA 18/6/01.
Wind power progress in 2000.
The annual global report from the American Wind Energy Association shows the addition of 3800 MWe of utility-scale wind turbines last year, making installed world capacity about 17,300 MWe at year end, with some 5000 MWe more due to come on line this year. Most of the growth was in Europe, with 1669 MWe in Germany, 713 MWe in Spain and 552 MWe in Denmark. The USA was quieter but will make up for that with some 2000 MWe to be added this year.
It appears that most of this equipment operates at 23-27% load factor through the year, supplying a respectable amount of carbon-free power but at the wind's bidding rather than the consumer's, and depending on various price support mechanisms and subsidies. However, power from some of the new US projects has been contracted at less than 3 cents/kWh, presumably net of the federal 1.5 c/kWh tax credit.
AWEA 2000 Global Wind Energy Market Report, IEA CADDET technical papers.
In April, UNSCEAR members decided upon their next five-year work program, emphasising the underlying mechanisms of radiation effects on the cellular and molecular level, and probing for source to effect linkages. It is at this molecular biology level that any protective or immunising effect of low-level radiation will be explained. Chernobyl remains part of the work program, particularly epidemiological studies related to cancers.
Nucleonics Week 17/5/01.
Russian study reaffirms Chernobyl effects.
A new study by three Russian government ministries outlines the health and ecological consequences of the 1986 Chernobyl accident. It says that the accident continues to have direct or indirect consequences for millions of Russian citizens who live in contaminated territories or who were involved in the clean-up.
However, the report also castigates those who ignore the international scientific consensus on the effects of the accident (UNSCEAR, WHO, ICRP & IAEA) and persist in reporting exaggerated figures for numbers of victims. "Irresponsible utterances mentioning hundreds of thousands and even millions of victims ... objectively disorient the public and pose real obstacles for the work aimed at elimination of accident consequences." The report points out that the preoccupation with radiation also distracts attention from the health consequences of other pollution, notably in 200 Russian cities with a total of 65 million people who are exposed to very high levels of "harmful chemical compounds" with cancer, mutagenic and toxic effects.
NucNet news # 192/01.
Reactor table
Nuclear power in the world today
Australia's uranium and who buys it
Canada's uranium production
World uranium mining
US nuclear power industry
German nuclear energy
Nuclear power in Russia
Energy analysis of power systems
Thorium
Research reactors
Australian research reactors
See also Uranium Exchange graphs
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