Government resolve on several fronts over recent months has shown how nuclear power will be a major part of the way forward in several countries.
Framing these policy decisions are the twin constraints of energy security and avoiding carbon emissions. However, the economics of power generation options remains basic.
In the UK the Labour government has swung from barely wanting to mention the "N" word in 2003 and dismissing energy security concerns then to being strongly committed to nuclear power today. The idea is to at least replace present nuclear power capacity as soon as possible. And after years of indecision and political evasion by both major parties, there are now strong signals that nuclear wastes will be responsibly handled at government policy level, with full funding from electricity users - as is normal elsewhere in the world. This will be a significant factor in public acceptance.
The Russian government has confirmed its ambitious expansion plan for doubling nuclear power capacity by 2020, and in the last six months added some slightly speculative upside to this for good measure. Along with announcing the staged list of new plants and their locations however, the government has called for private investment in power generation so that it is competitive, while the state winds back its involvement to natural monopoly functions such as grid management.
As Romania settles in to enjoy the benefits of a second western nuclear power reactor, with now almost a fifth of its electricity from this source, it has been overwhelmed with interest from energy utilities and others for building two more of those reactors. The upshot is an agreement that the state utility will partner with six others in building and operating the next two reactors. The partners will take a share of the output in proportion to their investment, apparently at cost. Given that one of the partners is a major steel company, this resembles the cooperative model which has successfully brought together resources for greatly expanding nuclear power in Finland.
In Canada, two provinces have strong government support for nuclear power expansion and plans are being advanced in a third. In Ontario exhaustive reviews of energy needs have resulted in the government inviting four companies to submit proposals to build the province's new nuclear reactors. This is the next step in the government's 20-year energy plan, first announced in June 2006. That plan focuses on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and Ontario's overall carbon footprint while ensuring a "reliable, affordable and environmentally responsible electricity supply." In New Brunswick the government has given strong support for building a new large reactor to supply local needs and export power to northeastern USA.
In China the government has announced the formation of a new National Energy Commission which is to draft an energy development strategy complete with various programs and then monitor and implement its execution. It will promote favoured forms of energy and encourage conservation, though it is not yet clear how it will relate to other national nuclear energy entities which are in the process of at least quadrupling the country's nuclear power capacity by 2020.
In the USA there are now six construction and operation licence applications lodged, for ten new power reactors, and another two are expected any day. Meanwhile after careful scrutiny the government has extended the operating licences of 47 of the country's 104 nuclear power reactors, and granted uprating of others to the extent of 4900 MWe. Both initiatives give a major boost to capacity now and in decades ahead. Several large new reactors are expected to come on line by 2020 and though the capital costs are high, the ongoing economic benefit in affordable power and clean air are widely attractive.
In many other countries also, governments for similar reasons are leading the move to adopt or expand nuclear power with firmer resolve than in the past. This may be because even in politics, the facts of electricity demand and supply plus public concern about climate change are starting to weigh more than the well-worn rhetoric of fear and NIMBYism.
Good year for US nuclear power
In 2007 the 104 US nuclear power reactors recorded a record high 91.8% average capacity factor, and produced a record 807 billion kilowatt-hours at a record low cost of 1.68 cents/kWh for fuel, operation and maintenance, according to preliminary figures.
NEI 6/2/08.
US uranium production recovers further
After some years in the doldrums, US uranium production in 2007 continued its steady recovery, with a 14% increase on 2006. This made it the highest production for eight years. A total of 1800 tonnes of uranium (2123 t U3O8) was produced from five ISL mines and one mill which was treating secondary material. Cameco's two mines produced 1044 tonnes of the ISL total. At least one further ISL mine is expected to come into production this year - Areva's Christensen Ranch.
EIA 12/2/08.
Fifth and sixth applications for reactor licences
Progress Energy has lodged a combined construction and operating licence (COL) application for two new 1100 MWe reactors at its Harris site in North Carolina. If it decides to build, the first AP1000 unit would be on line about 2018.
Entergy has lodged a COL application prepared by industry consortium NuStart Energy Development for a new GE-Hitachi 1550 MWe ESBWR reactor at its Grand Gulf site in Mississippi. It already has an early site permit for putting a new reactor at Grand Gulf.
Progress Energy 19/2/08, Entergy 27/2/08.
UK details waste management future
The UK government has published the arrangements for management and disposal of future nuclear wastes. After demonstrating detailed and costed plans for decommissioning, waste management and disposal before they begin construction, operators will need to set aside funds progressively into a secure and independent fund in much the same way as most other countries. The government will set a "fixed unit price for disposal of intermediate-level wastes and spent fuel," which "will include a significant risk premium" and escalate with inflation. The government will then take title to the wastes and accept liability for disposing of them. A new Nuclear Liabilities Financing Assurance Board is to be set up in 2008 to advise the government in relation to each proposal and setting the fees. It will have a strong actuarial function.
Operators will need to make their own arrangements regarding disposal of low-level operational wastes, and fund that as they go along. All other waste and decommissioning costs will be met from the Independent Fund set up by each operator for each plant. The fixed unit price will be paid into each fund and form part of its corpus alongside other provisions. Mid-2009 is given as the earliest date that generic fixed unit price figures for intermediate- and high-level wastes will be available to aspiring operators. Final figures will then be negotiated in the light of specific proposals.
BERR Consultation document Feb 2008.
UK government opens sites for new plants
The UK government's Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (NDA) has opened its sites to proposals for building new nuclear power plants. The sites include two old operating nuclear power plants which will close in the next three years and 17 others - mostly decommissioning sites. It points out however that this call for proposals does not replace the government's Strategic Siting Assessment process getting under way later in the year. The NDA is also soliciting proposals for taking over its fuel manufacturing business at Springfields.
The main nuclear utility British Energy (BE) controls all of the other likely sites for new nuclear power plants in UK and has said that all of them would be suitable for new build. It has made transmission connection agreements with National Grid for several of them, allowing for a range of possible reactor types to be in place from 2016 onwards. In March it was reported that BE was in discussion regarding its future options for equity and capital. In particular, RWE said it was ready to pay EUR 2.5 billion for the government's 32.5% share of BE.
The Business Secretary said that the government's priority is to maintain the necessary momentum to ensure that the country's first new nuclear power station since 1994 could be up and running within a decade. He highlighted logistical concerns as a factor in timing, with a resurgence of nuclear projects around the world encountering a limited number of companies with the expertise to build them: "I want the UK to be at the top of the queue, not bottom in the list, for potential investment in nuclear," he said. He expects the UK's reliance on nuclear power to increase significantly over the next two decades, well beyond the present 19% of electricity.
NDA 6/3/08, BERR 6/3/08, WNN 6 & 18/3/08.
Four reactor designs get to first base in UK
Assessments by the UK nuclear regulators - the Health and Safety Executive and the Environment Agency - have resulted in all four designs submitted passing preliminary review for Generic Design Assessment (GDA). Each full GDA will cost up to £10 million and take some 3.5 years in total. The four designs are the Areva EPR, Westinghouse AP1000, GE-Hitachi ESBWR and Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd ACR-1000. The next stage of the GDA will require prioritising on the basis of which designs "are most likely to be to be progressed for licensing and construction".
HSE 18/3/08, WNN 19/3/08.
UK becomes 21st member of GNEP
The UK has become the 21st member of the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP), indicating a fresh approach to its whole nuclear power sector and a willingness to play a significant role globally in fuel cycle technology and non-proliferation. The UK had been a notable absentee from GNEP and the country's inclusion means the partnership now includes all the countries that pioneered nuclear power in the 1950s, all the permanent members of the UN Security Council, all the major uranium exporters and apart from India, all the countries with reprocessing facilities.
WNN 26/2/08.
Finnish model for Romania financing
After "complex discussions" a draft investment agreement for the project to complete and operate two new Romanian nuclear power reactors has been sent to the joint venture partners for approval. The seven parties will spread the risk and ease the challenge of project financing. It is expected that the project company will be registered in May and the first reactor will be operating in 2013. State utility SN Nuclearelectrica, with about a 20% share, will team up with six joint venture partners to build the EUR 2.5 billion project - units 3 & 4 of Cernavoda, with 720 MWe CANDU units. SNN's partners comprise five utilities and a steelmaker, who will share the output in proportion to their investment.
SNN 4/3/08.
Russia confirms nuclear expansion plans
The Russian government has confirmed plans which were first announced last September for at least a doubling of nuclear generation capacity by 2020. As well as the 4800 MWe capacity now under construction, a further 12,000 MWe is planned for completion mostly by 2016, and then another 16,000 to 22,000 MWe proposed by 2020. For this last period five reactors have been added to last year's ambitious plan as "maximum scenario". Several new sites are involved. Some US$ 282 billion is to be invested by 2015, and a further $204 billion to 2020 on the projects listed. Also Rosatom has been charged with promptly developing an action plan to attract investment into power generation. It is envisaged that by 2020 much generation will be privatized and competitive, while the state will control natural monopoly functions such as the grid.
Most of the new capacity will be the new 1200 MWe VVER reactors driving AES-2006 power plants, but six 300 MWe units are included, and also a second floating power plant with twin 40 MWe reactors. The only fast reactor on the list is the BN-800 unit now under construction at Beloyarsk. The technology for the 300 MWe types is yet to be confirmed - it will be either OKBM's VBER-300 pressurised water reactor or the slightly smaller VK-300 boiling water reactor. The former is being developed in collaboration with Kazakhstan and the first ones are likely to be built there in the same time frame as Russian plans.
Uncertainty regarding the future of long-delayed Kursk-5 continues, as it is listed for completion by 2010 "if financing is secured" - from where is not clear. It is an upgraded RBMK type, now 70% complete after 22 years. All other RBMK reactors - long condemned by the EU - are due to close by 2024, leaving it technologically isolated. After 2016 about 7 small units and two large ones - total 3500 MWe - will be decommissioned.
Rosatom 12/3/08, RIA Novosti 12/3/08.
Russian export rationalisation
Russia's organization responsible for bidding on and building nuclear plants abroad, Atomstroyexport (ASE) has formed an alliance with TechnoPromExport (TPE), an exporter of all other large-scale power generation types. This will rationalize their international marketing. TPE boasts of having completed 400 power projects in 50 countries around the world totaling some 87 GWe. ASE has been focused on building five VVER-1000 units in China, India and Iran, and has signed agreements for more.
WNN 21/2/08.
Norway looks at thorium
A government-appointed committee has reported that building thorium-fuelled power reactors was a possibility which could not yet be properly assessed, but testing of thorium fuel in the country's Halden research reactor should be encouraged. The country should also strengthen its international collaboration in nuclear energy and develop its human resources in nuclear science and engineering so as to keep the thorium option open as complementary to the uranium option. "The potential contribution of nuclear energy to a sustainable energy future should be recognised." Norway has major thorium resources.
Thorium Committee, Feb 2008.
IAEA confirms no damage to quaked reactors, but Tepco bleeds
The second inspection team from the International Atomic Energy Agency has confirmed after inspecting key internal components that there is apparently "no significant damage to the integrity of the plant" at Kashiwazaki Kariwa in Japan. It was shut down after an earthquake in July which was more severe than the plant was required to be designed for. Ground subsidence damaged much equipment around the reactors, but the main part of the plants are built on bedrock, which entailed excavation in some places to 45 metres.
Losses of some JPY 155 billion (US$ 1.44 billion) are projected by Tepco for FY2007 (to 31/3/08) due to the prolonged closure of the plant. While the actual reactors are undamaged, major civil engineering works are required before they resume operation, which is not expected for some time. Overall, the FY2007 impact of the earthquake is now projected to be JPY 603.5 billion ($5.62 billion), three quarters of that being increased fuel costs to replace the 8000 MWe of lost capacity.
WNN 30/1/08, 27/2/08.
China starts building new reactor
Construction has started on the first unit of six for Ningde nuclear power plant at Qinyu on the northeast coast of Fujian province. Phase 1, comprising four 1000 MWe units costing US$ 7.145 billion, will have over 70% local content, and the first of the CPR-1000 reactors is expected on line at the end of 2012.
WNN 18/2/08.
China buys Mitsubishi generators
Shandong Nuclear Power Co. has ordered two steam turbine generator sets of 1200 MWe for its new $3.25 billion Haiyang nuclear power plant from Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and its local partner Harbin Power Equipment Co. Ltd. Last year Sanmen Nuclear Power Co signed a $521 million contact with the same partners for its generators. All four are to complement the four Westinghouse AP1000 units contracted for the two new sites last year. Doosan Heavy Industries in Korea is supplying the pressure vessels and steam generators for Sanmen and it is expected that those for Haiyang may be sourced in China.
MHI 31/1/08.
Philippines nuclear investigation
An IAEA mission commissioned by the government was asked to advise on whether Bataan-1 could economically and safely be operated, and to recommend a policy framework for nuclear power development in the country. The 621 MWe Bataan reactor was built in response to the 1973 oil crisis. It was completed in 1984 but has never operated, though it has been maintained. Nuclear power is now back on the agenda due to the increasing dependency on imported oil and coal.
WNN 29/1/08.
Areva targets fleet sale to South Africa
Eskom in South Africa has short-listed Areva's EPR and Westinghouse's AP1000 reactors for supplying 3.0 to 3.5 GWe of new nuclear capacity urgently needed there. This is to be the first tranche of total 20 GWe of new nuclear capacity decided upon early last year. Areva is heading a consortium of South African engineering group Aveng, the French construction group Bouygues and Electricité de France. It has submitted a bid to supply two 1650 MWe EPR units, and Westinghouse is matching this with a bid with three 1134 MWe AP1000 units. The Westinghouse-led consortium includes the Shaw Group and the South African engineering firm Murray & Roberts. Construction start would be 2009-10 and the first unit on line in 2016.
Areva and Westinghouse have also offered to build the full 20 GWe - with a further ten large EPR units or 17 AP1000 units by 2025. This would be coupled with wider assistance for the local nuclear industry, in the Westinghouse case including development of the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (it owned 15% of PBMR Ltd and retains an interest in the technology).
The country's two operating reactors are 900 MWe standard French units supplied by Areva's predecessor. There is currently a dire shortage of generating capacity and industrial users have been subject to severe cutbacks.
Areva 31/1/08.
Russia firms up plans for more Indian reactors
A further agreement in principle has been signed for Russia to supply four more large reactors for the Kudankulam site, on the southern tip of India, where two AES-92 1000 MWe units are already nearing completion. Proceeding with the agreement must await conclusion of moves to bring India substantially into the world nuclear non-proliferation regime.
WNN 13/2/08.
Turkey decides on nuclear power site
The Turkish government has decided to build its first nuclear power plant at Akkuyu, on the eastern Mediterranean coast. This puts aside a decision two years ago to locate the initial plant at Sinop, on the Black Sea. Akkuyu was under consideration from the 1970s to 2000 for a nuclear plant, and has the advantage of already being licensed.
The Turkish Electricity Trade & Contract Corporation (TETAS) is calling for bids for the first plant, which will probably be built by the private sector with all its electricity sold to the state utility for 15 years. A government decision on plant type and construction arrangements is expected by the end of 2008, and first power is expected in 2014. Some 5000 MWe of nuclear capacity is envisaged in the next decade.
Sinop would have had the advantage of cooling water temperatures about 5 degrees below those at Akkuyu, allowing about 1% greater power output. However, preparatory work is under way there for the country's second nuclear power plant some time in the future, and more immediately a EUR 1.7 billion nuclear technology centre.
AFP 12/2/08, WNN 13/2/08.
Further nuclear plant for New Brunswick?
A consultant study commissioned by the provincial government shows that a second nuclear power reactor at Point Lepreau would be viable under likely conditions, including major power export to northeastern USA. A parallel study by Team Candu, led by AECL, delivered a feasibility study on the proposed plant. If approved, it would be the first Canadian ACR-1000 plant (1100 MWe) built. Team Candu was set up in 2006 to offer fixed-price plants on a turnkey basis. While government-owned NB Power would be licensee and operator, the plant could be either privately-owned and financed or publicly financed from government debt. The present 630 MWe Point Lepreau reactor is currently being refurbished at a cost of $1.4 billion (including replacement power). There is also a proposal for a third reactor at the site, but this would require new transmission infrastructure.
NB govt 4/2/08.
Ontario communities urge nuclear plant siting
Communities surrounding the massive 3920 MWe Nanticoke coal-fired power station, which is set to shut down in 2014, are strongly urging the provincial government to consider the area for a new nuclear power plant. It has the advantage of established transmission infrastructure, compared with constraints in that regard at Bruce, one of the two sites already under consideration. However, at this stage environmental assessments are proceeding only for Bruce and Darlington.
AREVA, Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd., GE Hitachi and Westinghouse have been invited by the Ontario government to submit proposals to build the new nuclear reactors at Darlington or Bruce or both. A total of 2000 to 3500 MWe is envisaged. The bids will be assessed by Infrastructure Ontario and include representatives from the Energy and Finance ministries, Bruce Power and Ontario Power Generation. Ontario's ambitious 20-year energy plan seeks to achieve energy efficiency gains of 6,300 MWe and double renewable capacity to 15,700 MWe by 2025, eliminate coal-fired generation by the end of 2014, add additional gas-fired generation for use in peak periods and maintain nuclear generation capacity for baseload operation up to the current installed level of 14,000 MWe.
Star 19/3/08, WNN 10/3/08.
Canadian uranium production down in 2007
Production from Canada's three uranium mines declined 5% in 2007 to 11,046 tonnes U3O8 (9367 tU), apparently due to water ingress problems at one mine. McArthur River mine (70% Cameco) produced its full licensed 8492 tonnes (7201 tU), Rabbit Lake 1821 tonnes (1544 tU) and Areva's McClean Lake 734 tonnes U3O8 (622 tU). (Cameco also reported 1044 tU from its US operations.)
Cameco 6/2/08, Areva RC 6/2/08 (figures rounded)
Paladin-Cameco JV gets Angela deposit
The Northern Territory government has accepted a bid by 50-50 joint venturers Paladin Energy Ltd and Cameco Australia to explore the Angela uranium deposit with the adjacent Pamela deposit, 25 km south of Alice Springs. A resource of over 10,000 tonnes of U3O8 at 0.10 to 0.13% grade was identified in the 1980s, but the lease was relinquished. The new Angela Project JV has committed to spend $5 million on confirming the resources once a licence is issued, with a view to then undertaking a bankable feasibility study.
Paladin 20/2/08.
World's known uranium resources increase 17%
In the two years since the last edition of the International Atomic Energy Agency's "Red Book", known resources of uranium worldwide have increased by 17%, according to the head of the IAEA. Higher uranium prices have spurred exploration efforts and also led to reassessment of previously sub-economic uranium resources.
IAEA 3/3/08.
Japan sees huge scope for nuclear expansion
Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) has published its "Cool Earth 50" program for energy-related technologies that will halve the level of worldwide greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. METI prioritised 21 technologies, presenting a road map for their development. It says that advanced nuclear power is expected to make a substantial contribution - almost 10 billion tonnes of CO2 reduction per year. Achieving this would involve deploying an extra 1500 GWe of nuclear capacity worldwide - in total about five times the present level.
JAIF 12/3/08.
New financial index for uranium and nuclear sector
A new index of over 60 leading global nuclear companies has been created by a partnership of the World Nuclear Association (WNA) and S-Network LLC to provide a benchmark for the financial success of the nuclear industry. Financial products based on the WNA Nuclear Energy Index (WNAI) are expected to be available about the end of March. It is rule-driven and comprises 64 traded companies with market capitalization of over $1200 billion, including:
- Reactor vendors: 15%; four companies
- Construction: 15%; eight companies
- Nuclear fuels: 20%; nine companies
- Power generation: 25%; 15 companies
- Technology, equipment and services: 25%; 28 companies
A complete list of constituents and weights is on the WNAI web site.
Areva reports strong results and upbeat future
Areva has reported improvement in sales and profit, with an 85% increase in nuclear orders. Looking further ahead to 2030, it expects to build one third of the world's new nuclear generating capacity (in "accessible markets") by then. The 2030 scenario has 267 GWe of nuclear capacity reaching its nominal end of life by then but 186 GWe of this being granted life extension. Added to this will be 344 GWe of new build, making 635 GWe total nuclear capacity then - half way between the 2030 WNA Reference and Upper scenarios of 2007 and 21% above the IEA World Energy Outlook alternative scenario of 2007.
At the end of 2007 Areva had orders worth some EUR 39.8 billion, up 55% from the level of orders at the end of 2006. This included an EUR 8 billion contract with China Guangdong Nuclear Power Co for two EPR units at Taishan, plus associated services. For 2007, Areva reported total sales revenue of EUR 11.9 billion, an increase of 9.8% compared with 2006.
Areva 4 & 26/2/08.
Rio Tinto aims to double uranium production
Rio Tinto has announced that feasibility studies are under way with the aim of doubling the company's uranium production by 2015, mainly by boosting output of its present mines. Production in 2007 was 4589 tU from Ranger in north Australia and 2582 tU from Rossing in Namibia, total 7171 tU. At least two prospective new uranium mines in Australia are stalled due to political veto or traditional owner veto, but Ranger and Rossing extension projects based on exploration success and each costing under $500 million are scheduled for 2010.
RioTinto 13/2/08.
Uranium One setback
Toronto-based Uranium One has announced a substantial (73%) increase in Indicated Resources at its Dominion mine in South Africa, to 51,000 tonnes U3O8 (43,000 tU). About two thirds of this represents reclassification of Inferred Resources. Production from Dominion in 2007 - its first year - was 78 tonnes U3O8, and that expected in 2008 is 270 tonnes, reflecting slower underground development than anticipated. Full production of 1730 tonnes U3O8 was earlier anticipated by 2011.
The company announced a 32% drop in its overall production forecast for 2008 (and 15% for 2009), on top of a 38% drop forecast in October. While the main problem is evidently Dominion, two of its three Kazakhstan mines also contribute. Akadala appears to be on target, but South Inkai has had 2008 forecast reduced due to acid shortage. Kharasan is due to start up in 2008, with 330 tonnes U3O8 (Uranium One share: 100t) production against eventual 5900 t/yr target in 2014. The share price dropped to 29% of last year's high.
Uranium One 22/2/08.
World Energy Council emphasises nuclear for EU
Arising from a two-year study of potential energy crises, the World Energy Council has said that Europe needs a common energy policy with the emphasis on security of supply. It also needs more openness towards technologies such as nuclear power "for both reducing dependency on imports and fulfilling the commitment of all European countries to the Kyoto Protocol". Nuclear power should feature in national energy policies of both EU and neighbouring countries. Furthermore, investment in new generating capacity is becoming urgent - the region is vulnerable now.
WEC, WNN 7/2/08.
Russia - US high-enriched uranium program on track
A total of 325 tonnes of Russia's military high-enriched uranium (HEU) has now produced almost 10,000 tonnes of low-enriched fuel for US electricity generation and represents 60 million SWU of enrichment. This supply is today responsible for nearly half of US electricity from nuclear power, and Russia has received over US$ 5.1 billion for it under a market-based pricing formula. This is about the two thirds mark of a 20-year program under which the HEU is blended down in Russia and shipped to USEC which manages the scheme for the US government. USEC claims the elimination of 13,000 nuclear warheads so far.
USEC 5/3/08.
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See also Ux Consulting graphs
World reactor changes in last two months:
US: Crystal River 3 uprate 14 MWe Jan 08
China: Ningde-1 1000 MWe under const.
Sweden: reduce total by 70 MWe - Ringhals
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