After Chernobyl there was a significant change of culture in the Russian civil nuclear establishment, at least at the plant level, and this change was even more evident in the countries of eastern Europe who saw the opportunity for technological emancipation from Russia. By the early 1990s a number of western assistance programs were in place which helped to alter fundamentally the way things were done in the eastern bloc, including Russia itself. Design and operating deficiencies were tackled, and a safety culture started to emerge. Both the International Atomic Energy Agency and the World Association of Nuclear Operators were responsible for huge gains in safety and reliability of Soviet-era nuclear plants. In the first two years of WANO's existence, 1989-91, operating staff from every nuclear plant in the former Soviet Union visited plants in the west on technical exchange, and western personnel visited every FSU plant. A great deal of ongoing plant-to-plant cooperation, and subsequently a voluntary peer review program, grew out of these exchanges.
By the late 1990s further changes were evident. Russia's Minatom took over building two reactors for Iran at the Bushehr power plant, it sold two large new reactors to China for Jiangsu Tianwan at Lianyungang (now under construction) and two to India for Kudankulam (with construction about to start).
Russia's stalled domestic construction program was revived as far as funds allowed, and Rostov-1, the first of the delayed units, is expected to start up early in 2001, joining 21 GWe already on the grid. Financing for the next two reactors (2 GWe) is uncertain and beyond that a further 7 GWe of capacity remains partially complete. Since the Chernobyl accident, only one nuclear power station has been commissioned in Russia, the 4-unit Balakovo.
Russia's electricity supply faces a number of acute constraints. First, demand is rising about 3% per year after more than a decade of stagnation, secondly some 50 GWe of generating plant (more than a quarter of it) in the European part of Russia comes to the end of its design life by 2010, and thirdly Gazprom is cutting back on natural gas supplies for electricity generation by 12% over two years because it can make about five times as much by exporting the gas to the west. (Also, by 2020, the Western Siberian gas fields will be so depleted that they supply only a tenth of current Russian output, compared with nearly three quarters now.) Late last year, in response to these constraints but also in the light of 1990s plant improvements, the government extended the operating lifetimes of 12 of Russia's oldest nuclear plants, totalling 5.76 GWe, or 29% of total nuclear capacity.
On the positive side, nuclear electricity output is rising strongly due simply to better performance of the nuclear plants, with capacity factors leaping from 56% to 75% 1998-2000 and 130.6 billion kWh being supplied last year (15% of total).
Minatom's proposal for a rapid expansion of nuclear capacity in this context is based initially on the cost effectiveness of completing the 10 GWe of partially built plant, at an average cost of US$ 680 per kilowatt, compared with US$ 950/kW for new gas-fired plant including necessary infrastructure. (New nuclear plant is projected at US$ 900/kW.) To get the funds, Minatom is offering Gazprom the opportunity to invest in some of the partly completed nuclear plants. The argument is that the US$ 7.3 billion required for the whole 10 GWe would be quickly recouped from gas exports if the new nuclear plant reduced the need to burn that gas domestically.
However, despite some well-publicised difficulties in getting paid for its electricity, Minatom is not broke. Exports of nuclear fuel cycle goods and services through its foreign trade organisation Tenex topped US$ 2 billion in 1999, including $500 million in fuel assemblies and $1.6 billion in other goods and services. Russia provides nearly one third of European uranium needs and is also selling diluted ex-military uranium for civil use through USA. The latter supplies about 15% of world reactor requirements and is part of a US$ 12 billion deal between US and Russian governments, with a non-proliferation as well as commercial rationale.
Today Russia is flying kites in several directions. Minatom claims to be able to undercut world prices for nuclear fuel and services by some 30%. It is canvassing the prospect of producing mixed oxide (MOX) fuel from its own demobilised weapons plutonium, pursuant to the US-Russian agreement on plutonium disposition. It is also pushing ahead with plans to store and probably reprocess foreign spent fuel, and the Russian parliament has overwhelmingly supported a change in legislation to allow this. The proposal involves some 10% of the world's spent fuel over ten years, or perhaps up to 20,000 tonnes of spent fuel, to raise US$ 20 billion, two thirds of which would be invested in expanding civil nuclear power.
Overall there is increasing acceptance of the need to press ahead with nuclear energy in Russia while expanding the country's role internationally at both the front and the back end of the fuel cycle. Increased reliance on nuclear energy may strengthen Minatom's hand in the domestic market and improve its chances of being paid promptly and fully for its electricity supplied to the national grid, which will in turn ensure that safety and capital works can be properly funded. Russia's future international role will be built on its reputation over the last decade as a reliable commercial provider of fuel-related services. With the consolidation of western nuclear fuel cycle vendors, the competition may be welcomed.
Red Atom by P.Josephson, UIC briefing paper # 12, UI Briefing Nuclear Power in Russia, NucNet business news # 31/00, NEI (review).
ERA has announced production of 2361 tonnes U3O8 from Ranger for the six months to end of December, giving a year's figure for 2000 of 4437 t U3O8 - 15% up on 1999. Sales revenue was A$ 71.5 million for the six months giving earnings (EBIT) of A$ 15.0 million, or $8.0 million after tax.
This brings the calendar 2000 Australian production to 8937 tonnes U3O8 - a 27% increase.
WMC, ERA 28/1/01.
Uranium exports at record level.
Last year's exports of Australian uranium reached 8757 tonnes U3O8, worth A$ 426 million (provisional figures). About a third went to Japan, a third to USA and the rest to Belgium, Canada, France, UK, Korea and Sweden.
DISR
Government selects waste repository site.
The federal government has announced the selection of a preferred site near Woomera for the national low-level waste repository. Formal environmental assessment will now be carried out on it and two nearby alternatives, in the penultimate stage of a 8-year process. The ARPANSA licensing process will begin later this year. All sites have been cleared by Aboriginal groups.
Minchin media release 24/1/01.
ANSTO ships more spent fuel.
In its biggest of five shipments to date, ANSTO shipped five 20-tonne casks containing 360 spent fuel elements from its research reactor to France for reprocessing. It was the second shipment to Cogema's La Hague reprocessing plant under a 1999 contract. The reactor provides the foundation of Australia's nuclear medicine capability and uses about 37 fuel elements (each 600 mm long) each year. ANSTO now has an inventory of about 850 used fuel elements, more than half of which are US-origin and so will be shipped there.
ANSTO 23/1/01.
Olympic Dam radiation report.
WMC has reported on occupational radiation doses at Olympic Dam for 1999-2000. The average incremental dose to designated employees at 1.7 mSv/yr was little more than background, with most under 5 mSv and the highest 9.9 mSv. In the mine 60% was external gamma exposure and 36% radon decay products, in the mill 77% was from dust (long-lived alpha emitters) and 23% gamma. Some 15,500 ambient radiation measurements were made in mine and mill, plus 10,000 on equipment. The incremental dose in Roxby Downs was 0.005 mSv/yr.
WMC.
Cameco boosts uranium reserves.
Cameco has announced a 55% increase in uranium reserves at McArthur River, to 179,000 tonnes U3O8 in 21% ore. Additional indicated resources total 66,000 tonnes in 11% ore. Over 5000 tonnes U3O8 was produced there last year, as production ramps up to 8200 t/yr.
Cameco 25/1/01.
California's electricity crisis.
With a third of its generating capacity off-line towards the end of 2000, mostly catching up with maintenance deferred from peak summer load conditions, California faced severe power constraints and these have continued since. Several plants, totalling 2700 MWe had used up their annual pollution credits so could not restart without severe fines. Normally the state imports about 20% of its power needs, but a dry summer reduced hydroelectric availability in the Northwest. Nuclear plants in Arizona and Texas helped, and local gas-fired plants met some of the shortfall, but demand forced gas prices to double.
As a result, wholesale electricity prices throughout the West soared to unprecedented levels - briefly reaching US$ 750/MWh (AUD 1.40/kWh). Electric utilities have generally experienced a quadrupling of wholesale prices from generators, but they have their own prices capped and have consequently suffered about US$ 12 billion in losses over the last six months. The state government has stepped in to bail out the two largest utilities and re-regulate the system.
Three west coast aluminium smelters with long-term power supply contracts have closed until 2002, and are making more money selling their electricity entitlements than they could from aluminium, while employees are sent home on full pay. In one case, power bought for 2.25 c/kWh is being sold for 55 c/kWh.
The basic longer-term problem is that apart from some impressive wind farms, hardly any generating capacity has been built in California in the last 15 years due to officially-indulged environmental activism, despite strong growth in demand. The recent crisis has forced renewed interest in building substantial coal and nuclear base-load capacity, though a government project to build a 260 MWe wind farm near the border (but in Nevada) has been more newsworthy.
Reuters 6/12/00, AFR 27/12/00, 10 & 29/1/01, Aust 8 & 27/1/01, Reuters 19/1/01.
US nuclear power cost pips coal.
For the first time since 1985, the average cost of generating electricity from nuclear energy in USA has dropped below that from coal. US Utility Data Institute figures for 1999 show nuclear at 2.07 cents/kWh, compared with coal 2.13 cents and gas 3.52 cents. The data comprises fuel plus operation & maintenance costs (including nuclear waste levy) but excludes capital (gas plants being very much cheaper). Some 103 nuclear reactors are included. Year 2000 figures are expected to show higher costs for gas, and possibly lower costs for nuclear power due to a robust 4% increase in output from existing capacity.
NucNet news # 5/01.
Belgium reports electricity options.
A special commission of 16 has reported on Belgium's electricity supply options to 2020. Key findings include the necessity of continuing substantial use of nuclear energy (currently supplying 58% of the country's electricity) on environmental and cost grounds. The report stresses that there is no scientific or technical reason to justify premature closure of any of the country's seven reactors, and furthermore a government decision to abandon reprocessing of spent fuel should be reconsidered. Cost projections for 2010 include three nuclear options, all of which are cheaper than gas (BEF 1.22 -1.70/, cf 1.74 for gas). The potential of renewables is limited, according to the report.
NucNet news # 435/00.
European finance for Ukraine nuclear plants.
The European Bank for Reconstruction & Development has approved (by an 89% vote apart from abstentions) a US$ 215 million loan towards completion of two new nuclear power plants in the Ukraine, Khmelnitski-2 and Rovno-4. This EBRD funding, though a modest part of the US$ 1480 million required, was a key factor in their completion to western safety standards. Conditions on the loan included safety enhancement of all 13 Ukraine nuclear power reactors, independence for the country's nuclear regulator, and fundamental reform of the electricity market.
Following the EBRD loan, the European Commission approved a US$ 585 million loan to Ukraine's nuclear power utility, Energoatom. The EC said that approval of this Euratom funding "a few days before the permanent closure of Chernobyl gives a clear sign of the Commission's commitment to nuclear safety ... as well as to the deepening of [EU] relations with Ukraine." It "will finance the completion, modernisation and commissioning of two third-generation nuclear units: unit 2 at Khmelnitski and unit 4 at Rovno nuclear power plants", apparently in 2004 and 2006 respectively. The EC pointed out that it and the EBRD had concluded that the US$ 1480 million project met all safety, environmental, economic and financial criteria. Foratom, the European atomic forum, welcomed "the EU's commitment to maintaining and enhancing nuclear safety in central and eastern Europe" and the "clear signal that it is serious about helping Ukraine reform its energy sector and its economy."
Russia is also providing US$ 225 million credit for equipment and fuel.
NucNet business news # 134 & 137/00, news # 427/00, PPNN Newsbrief 4/00, eNEI 25/1/01.
Chernobyl-3 closes.
In line with undertakings related to international assistance for building its two new nuclear plants, Ukraine closed the last operating reactor at Chernobyl on 15 December, almost 15 years after the disastrous accident there.
The research program at the International Chernobyl Centre, set up in 1995 and supported by US, UK and Japan, has been joined by France and Germany. It focuses on effects of the 1986 accident as well as wider issues of radioecology.
NucNet news # 429/00.
Finland confirms plans for radioactive waste repository.
The Finnish government has announced its decision in principle to proceed with construction of a deep geological repository for high-level nuclear wastes at Olkiluoto. The decision is supported by both local residents and the country's nuclear safety authority. Construction is expected to begin in 2010 and operation about 2020.
NucNet news # 447/00.
Russian nuclear output leaps ahead.
Over the last two years the efficiency of Russia's 29 nuclear power reactors has surged, with capacity factors leaping from 56% to 75%. Last year the nuclear plants supplied 130.6 billion kWh of electricity, 14.9% of the nation's total. A new reactor, Rostov-1 is currently loading fuel and is due for grid connection in March. Four or five more units are under construction.
NucNet news # 23/01.
Russia pushes forward on spent fuel import.
The Russian parliament has approved by a huge majority three bills to allow import of up to 20,000 tonnes of spent nuclear fuel for storage and reprocessing. The bills have two further readings before being sent to the upper house and President. Minatom is reported to be confident of winning contracts with China, Taiwan, Japan, Switzerland and Spain, and has already signed up Bulgaria in anticipation. About US$ 7 billion of the anticipated revenue has been earmarked for rehabilitation of regions polluted by radioactivity from military functions, and the remaining US$ 14 billion is expected to be invested in civil nuclear energy programs.
NucNet news # 445/00, Australian 23/12/00.
BNFL cleared to reopen MOX plant.
The UK nuclear safety authority has announced that it is happy with remedial action by BNFL at its demonstration facility for mixed oxide (MOX) fuel and will allow it to reopen. The 8 t/yr plant was closed following data falsification in quality control procedures in 1999. BNFL says the plant will reopen as ancillary to the 120 t/yr Sellafield MOX Plant for which full operating approval is being sought.
NucNet news # 441/00, cf UIC Newsletter # 2/00.
Radical restructuring of French nuclear industry.
The French government has announced plans for a radical restructuring of the national nuclear industry. A single holding company, Topco, will have two branches - nuclear, and electronics/ new technologies. The nuclear branch will comprise Framatome ANP (66%, with 34% Siemens) and Cogema (100%), creating a global market leader covering the entire nuclear fuel cycle. Topco itself will have about a 78% government ownership (through CEA) and the balance held by other investors. The European Commission has since announced its approval of the Framatome-Siemens merger, conditional upon Cogema and EdF divesting from it as envisaged by the overall restructuring.
NucNet business news # 130 & 133/00, background # 31/00.
French Constitutional Council curbs eco-tax.
France's "eco-tax" was launched in 1999 to curb pollution. In the name of reducing global warming, the government planned to extend it this year to energy consumption, including electricity. However, this has been disallowed by the country's Constitutional Council on the grounds that French electricity (76% nuclear, 14% hydro) contributes only minimally to CO2 emissions and "substituting this type of energy for that produced by burning fossil fuels should on the contrary be encouraged so as to combat the greenhouse effect".
Cogema 12/1/01.
Swiss cost hypothetical switch to renewables.
In response to two anti-nuclear political initiatives, the Swiss power utilities commissioned a report by Germany's Bremer Energy Institute on replacing nuclear capacity with renewables and/or improved utilisation efficiency. Currently the country gets 40% of its electricity from 5 nuclear reactors totalling 3170 MWe and which are expected to run for 50-60 years. One of the proposals is to close them prematurely at 40 years, the other to do so more rapidly. A ten-year moratorium on new nuclear plant construction expired recently.
Focusing on renewables, the study considers building 3000 MWe of solar photovoltaic plus 1000 MWe of wind capacity and notes that this would need to be supplemented by 4000 MWe of new fossil fuel capacity to compensate for low availability factor. Each kWh from the renewable plant would need to be matched by 9 kWh from fossil fuel sources. Assumptions include no increase in electricity demand, very much lower prices of PV equipment and gas prices half of today's. Nevertheless, even on this basis, costs would range from SFR 33 billion up to SFR 62 billion (EUR 40 billion) for the exercise.
NucNet news # 13/01, background # 2/01.
New Chinese experimental reactor starts up.
China's HTR-10, an experimental high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR), achieved criticality just before Christmas. It is located at the Tsinghua University in Beijing and is a key project in the country's high-tech R&D program leading to modular commercial HTGRs similar to the type being developed by a South African-led consortium. These will supplement conventional reactors for electricity production, and since they operate at a very much higher temperature than them (950oC, cf 300-330oC), they will also provide process heat for applications such as heavy oil recovery and coal gasification. Both the Chinese and South African reactors have their fuel particles compacted with graphite moderator into spherical balls, known as a pebble bed. They are cooled by helium.
NucNet news # 449/00 cf UIC briefing paper # 16.
Further MOX and waste shipments to Japan.
Cogema and BNFL have despatched a second shipment of mixed oxide (MOX) fuel from Europe to Japan which will pass south of Australia. The fuel is related to contracts between Cogema and ten Japanese utilities for reprocessing spent fuel and recycling the recovered fissile material. The 28 fuel assemblies are in four casks (each c 100 tonnes) on two specialised and armed ships, and are destined for Tepco's Kashiwazaki-Kariwa power plant. Departure operations at Cherbourg were live on the web at www.cogemalahague.fr.
The sixth return shipment of vitrified wastes from reprocessing Japanese spent fuel in Europe is on its way home via Cape Horn. The 192 canisters are in 8 casks on board one of several purpose-built ships.
Meanwhile, the first delivery of spent fuel to Japan's own Rokkasho reprocessing plant has taken place. The 24 tonnes is expected to grow to 1600 tonnes by the time the plant opens in 2005.
BNFL-Cogema 18 & 20/12/00, 17 & 20/1/01, NucNet news # 439/00 cf UIC Newsletter # 5/99 & briefing paper # 23.
Taiwan power plant stand-off referred to parliament.
Taiwan's supreme court has ruled that the government decision to abort construction of the new Lungmen nuclear power station was flawed and the matter must be referred to parliament.
NucNet news # 12/01.
Furore re depleted uranium munitions.
Recent publicity has attempted to implicate depleted uranium (DU) projectiles used in the Balkans as a cause of cancers in troops who served there. Apart from the question of the latency period for cancers, no evidence - clinical or epidemiological - has yet emerged which suggests that depleted or other uranium is more dangerous than was previously understood, let alone likely to cause cancers as alleged. Chemically, it has similar toxicity to lead, affecting the kidneys. There is a substantial volume of published research on the matter, including much since the Gulf war, and also earlier studies of uranium workers exposed to very high levels of uranium oxides for many years who show no increased incidence of cancers.
DU is about half as radioactive as natural uranium which is ubiquitous in soil and granite etc. It is used in yacht keels, as counterweights on aircraft control surfaces (eg Boeing 747) and elsewhere that maximum mass must fit into minimum space. An increasing use is as radiation shielding, where it is five times more effective than lead.
In relation to human health on the battlefield, the main respect in which DU differs from lead (apart from a very low level of radioactivity) is that it is pyrophoric, so that DU projectiles upon impact partly atomise and burn to uranium oxide dust which is readily ingested or inhaled later on (the DU impact and ignition is presumably physically lethal for the immediate targets).
NucNet news # 4/01, IAEA 11/1/01; see also UIC briefing paper # 53.
OECD report on sustainability of nuclear power.
The OECD's Nuclear Energy Agency has produced a 60-page report evaluating nuclear energy as an element of sustainable development, particularly in the context of global warming concerns. The report is designed to help governments evaluate the potential for nuclear energy alongside alternatives, particularly "to identify the main impacts of nuclear energy in a sustainable development perspective [and] to outline some of the factors that should be considered in assessing the contribution that [it] can make to sustainable development goals". It provides data and analyses for policy makers and notes the "ample resource base" for nuclear energy.
The report concludes that "the competitiveness of different [energy] supply options should be assessed on the basis of the full costs to society, taking external costs into account and removing inappropriate subsidies, as well as integrating their contributions to alleviating the risk of global climate change and to the security and diversity of supply." Comparative assessment of energy options requires better "guidance on internalising external costs in a consistent way, so as to allow market mechanisms to be consistent with sustainable development." Nuclear energy needs to maintain economic competitiveness and high safety standards while developing waste repositories primarily to demonstrate their feasibility.
NucNet news # 421/00; www.nea.fr.
OECD projects energy future.
The OECD International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook 2000 shows a growing role for electricity to 2020. While primary energy demand grows 2% pa, electricity generation grows 2.7% pa (but 4% pa in developing countries). The proportion from coal declines in OECD but triples in developing countries. Gas doubles its share in the electricity mix, but this projection is based on little envisaged change in gas prices 1997 to 2010, whereas a doubling in Europe and North America now seems conservative. Nearly 3000 GWe of new generating capacity is expected by 2020, more than half in developing countries, especially Asia, and 80% of it to meet new demand. Average per capita electricity consumption doubles to 2000 kWh/yr in developing countries while that in OECD reaches nearly 12,000 kWh/yr.
World Energy Outlook 2000.
OECD predicts 60% rise in CO2 emissions to 2020.
The International Energy Agency of OECD, in its World Energy Outlook 2000, has warned of a substantial rise in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions over the next two decades. Most of the 60% increase from 1997 levels will come from developing countries, and half of that from power generation. "More and more decisive action" will be needed by the international community to avert "unwanted climate change".
The reference scenario has nuclear power output constant, and hence a declining proportion as total energy demand grows at a steady 2% pa overall. Power generation is expected to grow by 4% pa in developing countries. The report looks at options for reducing CO2 emissions from power generation, including nuclear plant lifetime extensions (7% reduction from reference scenario), switching from coal to natural gas (10%, limited by reserves and distribution) and increased use of renewables (6%, limited by cost and physical constraints).
NucNet news # 392/00, NEI Nuclear Energy Overview 4/12/00.
Germans trumpet wind success.
Germany installed 1668 MWe of wind turbine capacity last year according to its Federal Wind Energy Association. This brings its total to 6113 MWe, ahead of the USA with about 2500 MWe. Germany's 9375 wind turbines produce about 11.5 billion kWh/yr, covering 2.2% of the country's electricity demand (compared with nuclear energy: 160 billion kWh and 31%). The capacity factor for the wind plant appears to be about 25%.
Reuters 16/1/01.
# 1 - Australia's uranium & who buys it
# 3 - Canadian uranium mining
# 7 - International status of nuclear power
# 8 - Economics of nuclear power
# 19 - Plans for new reactors worldwide
# 22 - Chernobyl & Soviet reactors
# 23 - Japanese waste & MOX shipments from Europe
# 53 - Depleted & other uranium
UIC recognised with award. The Australian Nuclear Association's Annual Award for 2000 was presented to Ian Hore-Lacy on 7 December "for outstanding contributions to the provision of information on nuclear science and technology nationally and internationally" through the UIC.
See also Uranium Exchange graphs
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